IV
FUTURE TRAFFIC CONDITIONS
1. TRAFFIC FORECASTING
1.1 The Hazards of Forecasting
Forecasting is a hazardous business. The forecaster,
like the juggler, is required to keep so many balls
in the air that almost inevitably one falls to the
ground. Sometimes the entire forecast falls with it.
like the juggler, is required to keep so many balls
in the air that almost inevitably one falls to the
ground. Sometimes the entire forecast falls with it.
The forecast will, faute de mieux, rely upon trends.
Trends have a habit of changing. The symptoms of
change may not be evident until some time after the
change has taken place.
Trends have a habit of changing. The symptoms of
change may not be evident until some time after the
change has taken place.
Even if the trend remains constant, the community’s
perception of the problem may change. This was
evident in the early 1970s with the so-called
‘freeway revolt'. The number of motor vehicles
continued to increase at an extraordinary rate.
Yet, suddenly, people the world-around objected
(or appeared to object) to the freeway as a means
of accommodating traffic growth. There has been a
renewed interest in the environment and its preser-
vation. The public response to this Inquiry would
suggest a renewed interest in public transport as
a feasible solution to many traffic problems.
perception of the problem may change. This was
evident in the early 1970s with the so-called
‘freeway revolt'. The number of motor vehicles
continued to increase at an extraordinary rate.
Yet, suddenly, people the world-around objected
(or appeared to object) to the freeway as a means
of accommodating traffic growth. There has been a
renewed interest in the environment and its preser-
vation. The public response to this Inquiry would
suggest a renewed interest in public transport as
a feasible solution to many traffic problems.
1.2 The Danger of Traffic Forecasts
The hazards of traffic forecasting are not simply
that they may be wrong. That is certainly one
hazard. It is one which was not concealed by the
Department of Main Roads. The Department says in
its submission (59):
that they may be wrong. That is certainly one
hazard. It is one which was not concealed by the
Department of Main Roads. The Department says in
its submission (59):
"Travel forecasting is not an
exact
science. Like weather forecasting,
economic forecasting, or forecasting
of the result of a horse race, it is
science. Like weather forecasting,
economic forecasting, or forecasting
of the result of a horse race, it is
59. S.K/C
340 DMR Transport and Economic Analysis_
September, 1979, page 2.
September, 1979, page 2.
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fraught with uncertainty.
Nevertheless,
planning for the future cannot
realistically take place without
some estimates of future conditions
being made, Every individual makes
plans in some measure, and those
plans are based consciously or
unconsciously on that individual's
interpretation of how conditions
will change from those existing at
the present. Society also plans
for the future, and again forecasts
are required so that realistic plans
can be made."
planning for the future cannot
realistically take place without
some estimates of future conditions
being made, Every individual makes
plans in some measure, and those
plans are based consciously or
unconsciously on that individual's
interpretation of how conditions
will change from those existing at
the present. Society also plans
for the future, and again forecasts
are required so that realistic plans
can be made."
The second danger is that a forecast will dramatise
deficiencies in the road system and conceal important
questions of policy. If a corridor of movement is
already straining to carry 10,000 vehicles in the
2 hour morning peak, and 20,000 vehicles are predicted
for 1991, it is difficult not to panic. It is
difficult to restrain the reflex to provide more
road space. Yet policy consideration should enter
the equation at two separate points.
First, the forecast is a prediction based upon an
interpretation of sign posts on display in years
gone-by. It postulates, to a greater or lesser
degree, a continuation of past trends, There is
the danger that it will ignore the planner’s ability
to moderate past trends by policy initiatives.
interpretation of sign posts on display in years
gone-by. It postulates, to a greater or lesser
degree, a continuation of past trends, There is
the danger that it will ignore the planner’s ability
to moderate past trends by policy initiatives.
Secondly, even where there will be insufficient
capacity no matter what initiatives are taken between
now and the forecast year, it is still necessary to
contemplate the land use implications of meeting the
traffic demand. Is it a good thing for the city's
overall structure and growth if the evident deficiency
between 10,000 vehicles and 20,000 vehicles (to take
the previous example) is corrected? We venture to
suggest that if the deficiency were one within a
radius of 5 kilometres of the Central Business
District, and the direction of travel towards the
City, everyone would now agree that it is better to
shrug one’s shoulders, rather than attempt to correct
it.
capacity no matter what initiatives are taken between
now and the forecast year, it is still necessary to
contemplate the land use implications of meeting the
traffic demand. Is it a good thing for the city's
overall structure and growth if the evident deficiency
between 10,000 vehicles and 20,000 vehicles (to take
the previous example) is corrected? We venture to
suggest that if the deficiency were one within a
radius of 5 kilometres of the Central Business
District, and the direction of travel towards the
City, everyone would now agree that it is better to
shrug one’s shoulders, rather than attempt to correct
it.
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The policy question (as to the land use implications)
must be confronted no matter what the direction of
travel. It may be rather more difficult to answer
where the direction of travel is not (as in the
example) towards the Central Business District. Will
it lead to the expansion of the urban fringe? Will
it prejudice a policy of regional self-containment?
Is it necessary for the purpose of providing
reasonable accessibility for trucks between major
industrial areas, or between important traffic
generators? Can the deficiency be answered by
public transport? Would a road compete with public
transport facilities? Is there a land-use solution
in the offing?
must be confronted no matter what the direction of
travel. It may be rather more difficult to answer
where the direction of travel is not (as in the
example) towards the Central Business District. Will
it lead to the expansion of the urban fringe? Will
it prejudice a policy of regional self-containment?
Is it necessary for the purpose of providing
reasonable accessibility for trucks between major
industrial areas, or between important traffic
generators? Can the deficiency be answered by
public transport? Would a road compete with public
transport facilities? Is there a land-use solution
in the offing?
Traffic forecasts, because they highlight dramatic
differences between supply and demand, may deflect
attention from these important policy issues. In
the presentation of material to this Inquiry the
discussion has been almost exclusively in terms of
congestion, and its eradication, rather than the
land use implications of its eradication, and the
land use implications of providing a facility. The
discussion, if this be a fair description, is an
example of the second danger.
differences between supply and demand, may deflect
attention from these important policy issues. In
the presentation of material to this Inquiry the
discussion has been almost exclusively in terms of
congestion, and its eradication, rather than the
land use implications of its eradication, and the
land use implications of providing a facility. The
discussion, if this be a fair description, is an
example of the second danger.
We have demonstrated already that the system would
continue to operate even were the Department of Main
Roads to refrain from building any further roads (60).
The road builders have the opportunity, therefore,
to finely tune the system and pursue matters of
policy to a far greater degree than planners in
other arenas.
continue to operate even were the Department of Main
Roads to refrain from building any further roads (60).
The road builders have the opportunity, therefore,
to finely tune the system and pursue matters of
policy to a far greater degree than planners in
other arenas.
1.3 The Chapter Will Examine Trends
It will be appreciated, therefore, that the examina-
tion of trends in traffic growth, to pinpoint
discrepancies between supply and demand, is but the
first step, The second step will concern issues of
tion of trends in traffic growth, to pinpoint
discrepancies between supply and demand, is but the
first step, The second step will concern issues of
60. See
page 29.
-88-
policy: whether the discrepancy between supply and
demand should be corrected. The third step is a
matter of technique. If it should be corrected,
it is more appropriate to concentrate on public
transport as a solution, or on land-use policies,
or upon improving the road network?
demand should be corrected. The third step is a
matter of technique. If it should be corrected,
it is more appropriate to concentrate on public
transport as a solution, or on land-use policies,
or upon improving the road network?
In this chapter we will attempt to take the first step.
We will look at trends. We will examine discrepancies
between supply and demand. We will look at the major
traffic generators including:
We will look at trends. We will examine discrepancies
between supply and demand. We will look at the major
traffic generators including:
- The Central Industrial Area
- The Port
- The Airport
We will also examine the Western Region and the
South-Western Region, they having been identified
in the Terms of Reference.
South-Western Region, they having been identified
in the Terms of Reference.
The policy issues (and the issues of technique) can
await the evaluation of each option.
await the evaluation of each option.
The forecasting techniques used in this Inquiry
are:
are:
- the extrapolation of traffic growth
in the past.
- the more complex and sophisticated
'traffic model' known as the ,four-
step' model which reproduces, with
the aid of a computer, the myriad
journeys made each morning by
ordinary citizens and by commerce.
2. EXTRAPOLATION OF PAST TRENDS
2.1 The Technique Described
The Department of Main Roads (in common with all
road builders) examines traffic growth in the past
road builders) examines traffic growth in the past
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to better understand the levels of traffic likely
to be experienced in the future. Counting stations
have been established throughout the Sydney
Metropolitan Area. They monitor the number of
vehicles each day. There are permanent stations
established on the main arteries. There are, in
addition, checks made on every major road every
two years. Figures known as Annual Average Daily
Traffic (AADT's) counts are compiled and published.
to be experienced in the future. Counting stations
have been established throughout the Sydney
Metropolitan Area. They monitor the number of
vehicles each day. There are permanent stations
established on the main arteries. There are, in
addition, checks made on every major road every
two years. Figures known as Annual Average Daily
Traffic (AADT's) counts are compiled and published.
2.2 Past Traffic Growth South of Sydney Harbour
Figure 15 identifies ten screenlines (61). The
Department of Main Roads provided traffic volumes
across each screenline. The traffic volumes were
derived from AADT's.
Department of Main Roads provided traffic volumes
across each screenline. The traffic volumes were
derived from AADT's.
Appendix 3 reproduces this material (in a slightly
edited form) (62). The traffic figures provide a
perspective from which one can judge the accuracy
of predictions made by the computer modelling
technique (see below).
edited form) (62). The traffic figures provide a
perspective from which one can judge the accuracy
of predictions made by the computer modelling
technique (see below).
Road builders the world-around are often criticised
for having a 'growth mentality'. They see growth
wherever they look. It is not difficult to understand
why. In 1951 there were 581,655 motor vehicles
registered in New South Wales. In 1979 there were
almost 3 million, The following was put to the
Department (63):
for having a 'growth mentality'. They see growth
wherever they look. It is not difficult to understand
why. In 1951 there were 581,655 motor vehicles
registered in New South Wales. In 1979 there were
almost 3 million, The following was put to the
Department (63):
"COMMISSIONER: Now if one looks,
for
instance, at screenline 2 (in the
Marrickville area) the fact is there
has not been an increase in traffic
since 1971..and yet for that screenline
in the period between 1976 and 1991 a
growth of 13% is predicted..Is it the
case that the Department never concedes
the traffic is actually falling in any
area..?
instance, at screenline 2 (in the
Marrickville area) the fact is there
has not been an increase in traffic
since 1971..and yet for that screenline
in the period between 1976 and 1991 a
growth of 13% is predicted..Is it the
case that the Department never concedes
the traffic is actually falling in any
area..?
61. See
page 79.
62. Exhibit 67 from which the 1966 and 1968 figures
have been omitted and the 1979 figures have
been added.
63. Transcript DMR 15/1/80, page 2 and 4.
62. Exhibit 67 from which the 1966 and 1968 figures
have been omitted and the 1979 figures have
been added.
63. Transcript DMR 15/1/80, page 2 and 4.
-90-
BUNTON: The Department, of course,
doesn’t take an attitude of only
looking at positive growths. In
developing the forecasts one doesn’t
deliberately or consciously set out
only to anticipate or build into the
models a growth situation.."
It will be seen from Appendix 3 that screenline 2
crosses the following roads in Marrickville:
crosses the following roads in Marrickville:
- Richardson Crescent
- Marrickville Road
- Sydenham Road
In 1971 the traffic count for these roads was 58,94O
vehicles. It dropped to 51,620 in 1973 and dropped
again by 1977 to 48,310. Yet, the Department has
been vindicated by the most recent figures. Traffic
has again risen, although it has yet to reach the
1971 level of 58,940 vehicles. The 1979 count was
52,670 vehicles.
vehicles. It dropped to 51,620 in 1973 and dropped
again by 1977 to 48,310. Yet, the Department has
been vindicated by the most recent figures. Traffic
has again risen, although it has yet to reach the
1971 level of 58,940 vehicles. The 1979 count was
52,670 vehicles.
3. TRAFFIC PREDICTIONS MADE BY A TRAFFIC MODEL
3.1 Traffic is Regular and Therefore Predictable
The task is daunting. It is to replicate with the
aid of a computer the journeys made each day by
ordinary citizens, and by commerce.
aid of a computer the journeys made each day by
ordinary citizens, and by commerce.
Yet there is a regularity, and hence, a predictability,
about the journeys which we, as individuals, make
day-in day-out, week-in week-out. We have in the
past, and we will in the future, get up at a certain
hour each day. We will journey between our home and
our place of work. We may, from time to time, change
jobs. Almost certainly we will remain within the
same job classification. If we do not journey to
this factory, or that officer we will journey to
some other factory or office.
about the journeys which we, as individuals, make
day-in day-out, week-in week-out. We have in the
past, and we will in the future, get up at a certain
hour each day. We will journey between our home and
our place of work. We may, from time to time, change
jobs. Almost certainly we will remain within the
same job classification. If we do not journey to
this factory, or that officer we will journey to
some other factory or office.
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3.2 The Methodology Employed in the Transportation Model
The 'four-step’ model, as the name suggests, proceeds
in four stages. It asks, and answers, the following
questions in sequence:
in four stages. It asks, and answers, the following
questions in sequence:
- How many trips?
- Where to?
- By what means of travel?
- By what route?
These four questions correspond with the four stages
of the model:
of the model:
- Trip production/attraction
- Trip distribution
- Mode split
- Trip assignment
The road network is simplified for the purposes of the
study. Local roads are usually omitted. There are
exceptions where a local road performs an important
arterial function or carries a sizeable volume of
traffic. They are then included. The network in
Sydney comprises some 11,000 links (64). Each link
represents a particular road or portion of that road.
study. Local roads are usually omitted. There are
exceptions where a local road performs an important
arterial function or carries a sizeable volume of
traffic. They are then included. The network in
Sydney comprises some 11,000 links (64). Each link
represents a particular road or portion of that road.
Having analysed what it is that generates traffic
(by means of a survey), and having proceeded through
the four-stages of the model, the simulation can be
checked against actual traffic counts.
(by means of a survey), and having proceeded through
the four-stages of the model, the simulation can be
checked against actual traffic counts.
Having successfully reproduced the base year (1976)
traffic flow, the Group then forecasts the growth in
each variable used in the simulation. A triptable
for the forecast year (1991) is the result. Unlike
the base year, there cannot, in the nature of things,
be a check. The modellers must use their professional
judgement. It must 'seem’ right (65).
traffic flow, the Group then forecasts the growth in
each variable used in the simulation. A triptable
for the forecast year (1991) is the result. Unlike
the base year, there cannot, in the nature of things,
be a check. The modellers must use their professional
judgement. It must 'seem’ right (65).
64. Transcript
UTSG (now STSG) 20/11/79, page 67.
65. The Modelling Procedure is examined in greater
depth in Volume II, Transport Criteria, page 125.
65. The Modelling Procedure is examined in greater
depth in Volume II, Transport Criteria, page 125.
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3.3 The Assumptions Underlying the Model
The State Transport Study Group is responsible for
transport modelling in New South Wales. A useful
summary of the most important factors which must
be predicted is furnished by the Study Group. It
says (66):
transport modelling in New South Wales. A useful
summary of the most important factors which must
be predicted is furnished by the Study Group. It
says (66):
"There are difficulties and
problems
in the prediction of 16 factors (used
in the trip generation equations) for
each of about 500 zones, the main ones
being:
in the prediction of 16 factors (used
in the trip generation equations) for
each of about 500 zones, the main ones
being:
(a) the overall study area population.(b) distribution of population, which
is related to densities, lifestyles,
market supply and demand etc.(c) the distribution of employment,
especially that of commercial employ-
ment, whose location is (in theory)
subject to planning policy control.(d) the distribution of other activities
(schools, recreation, shopping)
which cause trips to be made in
the a.m. peak period; and(e) car ownership levels (related to the
desirability of private cars), car
running costs (especially fuel) and
hence car usage."
The transport model attempts to predict traffic flows
in the year 1991. The Department of Main roads in its
submission recites the specific assumptions made in
the course of constructing the model. It says (67):
in the year 1991. The Department of Main roads in its
submission recites the specific assumptions made in
the course of constructing the model. It says (67):
"The forecasts of 1991 a.m.
peak vehicle
trips were developed by UTSG (now STSG)
for a single population projection (PEC
Technical Bulletin No. 8 Low Projection)
and a single set of other assumptions,
the principal ones being:
trips were developed by UTSG (now STSG)
for a single population projection (PEC
Technical Bulletin No. 8 Low Projection)
and a single set of other assumptions,
the principal ones being:
*
a workforce participation ratio of
0.42 (about equal to the 1976 estimate),
0.42 (about equal to the 1976 estimate),
*
an employment distribution based on
a continuation of present trends,
a continuation of present trends,
66. UTSG
(now STSG) A Revision of the SATS Year 2000
Travel Forecasts July 1975.
67. DMR Submission S.K/C 340 Transport and Economic
Analysis, page 3.
Travel Forecasts July 1975.
67. DMR Submission S.K/C 340 Transport and Economic
Analysis, page 3.
-93-
*
car ownership levels increasing from
0.364 vehicles per person in 1976 to
0.426 vehicles per person in 1991.
0.364 vehicles per person in 1976 to
0.426 vehicles per person in 1991.
*
usage of vehicles in peak periods
not being unduly constrained by either
the availability or price of fuel.
not being unduly constrained by either
the availability or price of fuel.
*
public transport services being
maintained at their present level
with extensions into growth areas.
maintained at their present level
with extensions into growth areas.
*
public transport fares on PTC services
being half 1976 levels (in real terms)
and on private services equal to 1976
levels.
being half 1976 levels (in real terms)
and on private services equal to 1976
levels.
*
petrol prices being double 1976 levels
(in real terms).
(in real terms).
*
parking charges being double 1976
leve1s (in real terms), with CBD level
charges being more widely applied.
leve1s (in real terms), with CBD level
charges being more widely applied.
*
congestion on the road system, region-
wide, not changing substantially.
wide, not changing substantially.
These assumptions were considered
to be the
‘most likely’ for the Sydney Region. It
is considered that they represent a
reasonable best-estimate future in the
light of present knowledge."
‘most likely’ for the Sydney Region. It
is considered that they represent a
reasonable best-estimate future in the
light of present knowledge."
In the Criteria for Evaluation (Volume II) we examine
the model and the assumptions upon which it is built.
In many cases we are not in the position to say that
the assumptions made are wrong. In every case it, is
clear that the Study Group has gone to great lengths
to discover the most recent and reliable information.
Even if the information fed into the model were
absolutely accurate in every detail, the problems of
forecasting brought about by sudden changes in trends
(including those induced by policy initiatives) must
make one approach any prediction, 15 years ahead,
with some circumspection.
the model and the assumptions upon which it is built.
In many cases we are not in the position to say that
the assumptions made are wrong. In every case it, is
clear that the Study Group has gone to great lengths
to discover the most recent and reliable information.
Even if the information fed into the model were
absolutely accurate in every detail, the problems of
forecasting brought about by sudden changes in trends
(including those induced by policy initiatives) must
make one approach any prediction, 15 years ahead,
with some circumspection.
There is one assumption which excited the attention
and imagination of many people who made submissions
to the Inquiry (68). The price and availability of
fuel was an important matter before the Inquiry. It
is, therefore, a matter which should be addressed
and imagination of many people who made submissions
to the Inquiry (68). The price and availability of
fuel was an important matter before the Inquiry. It
is, therefore, a matter which should be addressed
68. See,
for instance, the contribution by Mr. Gedgovd,
a member of the Beverly Hills Progress Association
S.K/C 732 and transcript dated 22/10/79.
a member of the Beverly Hills Progress Association
S.K/C 732 and transcript dated 22/10/79.
and a judgement made. We will deal with that
assumption. We will then examine the predictions
made by means of the modelling procedure.
assumption. We will then examine the predictions
made by means of the modelling procedure.
3.4 The Price and the Availability of Fuel
3.4.1 The Issues Which Must be Addressed
There are three issues:
- First, is the judgement made by
the Study Group, that the price
of fuel will double in real terms
by 1991, reasonable?
- Secondly, is it reasonable to
suppose that the supply of petrol
will not be disrupted?
- Thirdly, what effect will a price
increase (or a disruption in supply)
have upon travel habits?
The issues are intertwined. It is necessary to
differentiate between Australia's position as a
petrol consumer and the world position. To what
extent is Australia likely to become dependent upon
imported oil rather than locally produced oil?
differentiate between Australia's position as a
petrol consumer and the world position. To what
extent is Australia likely to become dependent upon
imported oil rather than locally produced oil?
These matters are examined in Volume II, Transport
Criteria (69).
Criteria (69).
3.4.2 The Future is Highly Uncertain
No one disputes that the future for oil is highly
uncertain. As Australia's reserves dwindle towards
the end of this decade, it will be necessary to look
to overseas supplies. Those supplies will be dependent
upon a number of volatile factors (including Middle
East politics) outside the control of Australia.
uncertain. As Australia's reserves dwindle towards
the end of this decade, it will be necessary to look
to overseas supplies. Those supplies will be dependent
upon a number of volatile factors (including Middle
East politics) outside the control of Australia.
69. Volume II
pages 179 to 199.
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The ramifications for transport are summarised by
a member of the State Transport Study Group in the
following words (70):
"FIELD: The real
argument is not
so much about price: no one is
very worried about price; it's
the availability question. That's
an issue which is just completely
unknown.”
so much about price: no one is
very worried about price; it's
the availability question. That's
an issue which is just completely
unknown.”
The uncertainty surrounding future oil supplies
makes it necessary that we approach the forecasts
of the traffic model with a conservative eye.
makes it necessary that we approach the forecasts
of the traffic model with a conservative eye.
3.5 What Is the Base Case?
3.5.1 Descriptions of the Base Case
The traffic modelling technique seeks to contrast
supply (the road space available) and demand (the
predicted traffic flow in 1991). It pinpoints the
likely areas of congestion. Road builders can then
consider whether road works are necessary.
supply (the road space available) and demand (the
predicted traffic flow in 1991). It pinpoints the
likely areas of congestion. Road builders can then
consider whether road works are necessary.
The 'base case' (as it is termed) is the road space
likely to be available in 1991. It is not just a
matter of tabulating the road space presently
available. Certain road works are programmed.
They will be completed before 1991. They must be
included in any contrast between supply and demand.
likely to be available in 1991. It is not just a
matter of tabulating the road space presently
available. Certain road works are programmed.
They will be completed before 1991. They must be
included in any contrast between supply and demand.
Figure 16 in this Report is taken from the Joint
Study Report. It reproduces the major road works
likely to be completed by 1991. A convenient
description of those road works appears in the
submission of the Department of Main Roads (71):
Study Report. It reproduces the major road works
likely to be completed by 1991. A convenient
description of those road works appears in the
submission of the Department of Main Roads (71):
- Construction of F4 Western Freeway
between Concord and Mays Hill
- Construction of F5 South Western
Freeway between Hume Highway, Casula
and Moorebank Avenue, Moorebank.
70. Transcript
UTSG (now STSG) 4/12/79, page 96.
71. DMR Submission S.K/C 340 De Leuw Cather of
Australia Pty. Limited September 1979, page 24.
71. DMR Submission S.K/C 340 De Leuw Cather of
Australia Pty. Limited September 1979, page 24.
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FIGURE 16.
i.e.,
Figure 2.5 of Joint Study Report.
-97-
- Widening of Moorebank Avenue,
Moorebank to a four lane road.
- Upgrading of Lidcombe to Alfords
Point County Road to a six lane
arterial road.
- Upgrading of Ring Road No. 3 from
Blakehurst to Homebush to a six
lane arterial road.
- Widening of Punchbowl Road from
King Georges Road, Lakemba to
Coronation Parade, Enfield.
- Construction of a new six lane
arterial road linking Botany Road
and Southern Cross Drive.
- Construction of a four lane arterial-
road, Foreshore Drive between General
Holmes Drive and Botany Road."
Apart from these road works, it was assumed that
traffic management measures (priority roads, clearways
etc) would be applied more extensively throughout
the metropolitan area to better utilise the available
capacity within the existing road system (72).
traffic management measures (priority roads, clearways
etc) would be applied more extensively throughout
the metropolitan area to better utilise the available
capacity within the existing road system (72).
3.5.2 Is Canterbury Road to be Widened?
The diagram depicting the 'base case' (Figure 16)
does not show Canterbury Road as being widened.
Canterbury Road is a major arterial road. For most
of its length it is four lanes in width. It carries
a high percentage of truck traffic, especially in
the off-peak.
does not show Canterbury Road as being widened.
Canterbury Road is a major arterial road. For most
of its length it is four lanes in width. It carries
a high percentage of truck traffic, especially in
the off-peak.
Canterbury Road near Bankstown (between Chapel Road
and Punchbowl Road) is heavily congested in the
peak period. The Inquiry witnessed that congestion
on a number of occasions. The question was put to
the Department (73):
and Punchbowl Road) is heavily congested in the
peak period. The Inquiry witnessed that congestion
on a number of occasions. The question was put to
the Department (73):
"COMMISSIONER: Is it the
Department’s
view, and is it confirmed by their
observations, that this area (between
Punchbowl Road and Chapel Road) is
the critical area from the point of
view of congestion?
view, and is it confirmed by their
observations, that this area (between
Punchbowl Road and Chapel Road) is
the critical area from the point of
view of congestion?
72. Joint
Study Report, page 6.
73. DMR Transcript 25/10/79, page 6.
73. DMR Transcript 25/10/79, page 6.
-98-
ANDERSON: At the moment it is yes.."
There is a road widening corridor covering this
section of Canterbury Road (74). In the final day
of, evidence from the Department, the following
appears (75):
section of Canterbury Road (74). In the final day
of, evidence from the Department, the following
appears (75):
"MIDDLETON: I imagine
there have been
designs in the past for the widening
of this section of Canterbury Road
(referring to the section between
Chapel Road and Fairford Road,
Bankstown).
designs in the past for the widening
of this section of Canterbury Road
(referring to the section between
Chapel Road and Fairford Road,
Bankstown).
ANDERSON: I would
think for this
section yes.
section yes.
COMMISSIONER: Is it
your belief that
on the probabilities this section will
be widened within the foreseeable
future.. That is before 1991, or there
will be a commitment before 1991?
on the probabilities this section will
be widened within the foreseeable
future.. That is before 1991, or there
will be a commitment before 1991?
ANDERSON: Yes, I
think so."
This is a matter of importance when considering the
South-Western Option. The South-Western Option is
(more or less) parallel to Canterbury Road. As it
crosses Fairford Road it is less than a kilometre
away. By the time it reaches River Road it is even
closer. Widening Canterbury Road must, to that
extent, diminish the need for the South-Western
Option. The question was put to the Department (76)
South-Western Option. The South-Western Option is
(more or less) parallel to Canterbury Road. As it
crosses Fairford Road it is less than a kilometre
away. By the time it reaches River Road it is even
closer. Widening Canterbury Road must, to that
extent, diminish the need for the South-Western
Option. The question was put to the Department (76)
"MIDDLETON: ..Would you agree that
me undertaking of the Canterbury
Road widening could, to that extent,
mitigate against the construction
of the South-Western Freeway works
within the area?
ANDERSON: Oh yes, it must of course,
it could, yes.”
The discrepancy between supply and demand thrown up
by the modelling procedure must be adjusted to take
account of the likely widening of Canterbury Road.
It must be further adjusted because it appears that
by the modelling procedure must be adjusted to take
account of the likely widening of Canterbury Road.
It must be further adjusted because it appears that
74. See
Figure 1.2 Joint Study Report.
75. DMR Transcript 18/1/80, page 3.
76. Transcript DMR 25/10/79, page 9.
75. DMR Transcript 18/1/80, page 3.
76. Transcript DMR 25/10/79, page 9.
-99-
growth in the South-Western Region is somewhat
lower than predicted in 1976, when the model was
put together. This is a matter which will be
documented when we examine the South-Western Region.
3.5.3 Does the Base Case Include SCAT?
SCAT is an acronym for Sydney Co-ordinated Adaptive
Traffic System. It is a system of co-ordinated
traffic lights which will be controlled by computers.
Traffic System. It is a system of co-ordinated
traffic lights which will be controlled by computers.
The advantages are significant. First, if there is
a breakdown anywhere in the system, the information
is immediately relayed to the computer which takes
appropriate action. Secondly, the co-ordination of
lights ensures that traffic flows more smoothly,
proceeding more or less without interruption in
platoons. Thirdly, the capacity of each intersec-
tion is maximised. In the ordinary course traffic
signals are programmed according to an expected flow.
If there is twice as much traffic proceeding in one
direction as there is cross traffic, the amount of
'green time' for the cross traffic will be adjusted
appropriately. The SCAT system operates by means
of loops set in the pavement which gather and relay
information to a computer. The computer then
determines the actual flow of traffic and cross
traffic. It can carefully adjust the flow in order
to maximise the number of vehicles proceeding
through the intersection.
a breakdown anywhere in the system, the information
is immediately relayed to the computer which takes
appropriate action. Secondly, the co-ordination of
lights ensures that traffic flows more smoothly,
proceeding more or less without interruption in
platoons. Thirdly, the capacity of each intersec-
tion is maximised. In the ordinary course traffic
signals are programmed according to an expected flow.
If there is twice as much traffic proceeding in one
direction as there is cross traffic, the amount of
'green time' for the cross traffic will be adjusted
appropriately. The SCAT system operates by means
of loops set in the pavement which gather and relay
information to a computer. The computer then
determines the actual flow of traffic and cross
traffic. It can carefully adjust the flow in order
to maximise the number of vehicles proceeding
through the intersection.
There are two issues. First, does the base case
include SCAT? Secondly, does SCAT increase road
capacity?
include SCAT? Secondly, does SCAT increase road
capacity?
It is clear that SCAT was not taken into account in
formulating the base case (77).
formulating the base case (77).
77. UTSG
(now STSG) Transcript 4/12/79, page 73.
-100-
There is a divergence of views on the second issue.
Mr. Dobinson from the Department of Main Roads took
the view that SCAT will increase road capacity. He
said (78):
Mr. Dobinson from the Department of Main Roads took
the view that SCAT will increase road capacity. He
said (78):
“DOBINSON: Well the capacity
of the
road system in Sydney is largely
restricted by the intersections...
road system in Sydney is largely
restricted by the intersections...
Now, if instead of that, your
traffic
entered (the intersection) and goes
straight through, you don’t lose that
time at all those intersections, so
this means your route will carry more
traffic through it..
entered (the intersection) and goes
straight through, you don’t lose that
time at all those intersections, so
this means your route will carry more
traffic through it..
COMMISSIONER: But it
actually affects
the capacity of the road, as such?
the capacity of the road, as such?
DOBINSON: Yes it
does. Quite markedly."
Later this was quantified in the following exchange: (79)
"COMMISSIONER: In terms
of my assessment
of future growth in traffic, a great
deal of material has been put before
this Inquiry as to what the growth is
likely to be...Is it appropriate that
one takes the figures thrown up by the
model..and discounts them by 20% or
whatever (by reason of) the increasing
capacity which SCAT will bring about?
of future growth in traffic, a great
deal of material has been put before
this Inquiry as to what the growth is
likely to be...Is it appropriate that
one takes the figures thrown up by the
model..and discounts them by 20% or
whatever (by reason of) the increasing
capacity which SCAT will bring about?
DOBINSON: No it is
not..
COMMISSIONER: What
should one do?
DOBINSON: I'd take
about 10%, I’d take
about half of it. I'd say the other
half will go on improved residential
amenity.
about half of it. I'd say the other
half will go on improved residential
amenity.
COMMISSIONER: Yes, but
in terms of
the arterial road system, you'd be
likely to achieve 10% (increase in
capacity; not the 20%?
the arterial road system, you'd be
likely to achieve 10% (increase in
capacity; not the 20%?
DOBINSON:
Yes."
And later the following was added (80):
"COMMISSIONER: So
wouldn’t it be
appropriate following through that
logic, to, as it were, discount (the
growth) figures?
appropriate following through that
logic, to, as it were, discount (the
growth) figures?
78. Transcript
DMR 12/5/80, pages 56-60.
79. Transcript ibid., page 67.
80. Transcript ibid., page 69.
79. Transcript ibid., page 67.
80. Transcript ibid., page 69.
-101-
DOBINSON: Yes, yes
it would."
This is a significant omission from the model if
Mr. Dobinson's view is correct. The growth rates
in most cases are less than 15%. If 10% additional
capacity is to come from SCAT, conditions in 1991
are not likely to be very much worse than they are
at present. We can look at present-day conditions
without having to worry about forecasts.
Mr. Dobinson's view is correct. The growth rates
in most cases are less than 15%. If 10% additional
capacity is to come from SCAT, conditions in 1991
are not likely to be very much worse than they are
at present. We can look at present-day conditions
without having to worry about forecasts.
There were others who expressed a more cautious
view. Mr. John Bliss from the Department gave this
evidence (81):
view. Mr. John Bliss from the Department gave this
evidence (81):
"BLISS: I regard (SCAT)
as providing
a better level of service without
necessarily being able to provide
more capacity...If there is in the
middle of a string of adjacent traffic
signals that are co-ordinated, one
particular intersection that is already
operating at capacity, then obviously
you cannot squeeze any more traffic
through that intersection, and the
capacity in terms of so many vehicles
per hour will not be improved by co-
ordinating the others with it."
a better level of service without
necessarily being able to provide
more capacity...If there is in the
middle of a string of adjacent traffic
signals that are co-ordinated, one
particular intersection that is already
operating at capacity, then obviously
you cannot squeeze any more traffic
through that intersection, and the
capacity in terms of so many vehicles
per hour will not be improved by co-
ordinating the others with it."
The virtue of SCAT in Mr. Bliss' eyes was in the
smooth flow of traffic rather than increasing
traffic capacity.
smooth flow of traffic rather than increasing
traffic capacity.
The Inquiry is not in a position to resolve this
conflict. Two things can, however, be said. First,
the introduction of SCAT, and its omission from the
modelling procedure, is a further reason to view
the traffic forecast by the model with a conservative
eye. Those forecasts should be regarded as the upper
limit. Secondly, the evidence of Mr. Bliss may
weigh in favour of a policy directed at intersec-
tion improvements (road widening; adding right
hand turning lanes) rather than a major road.
If an intersection is constricting a road, and
preventing the utilisation of latent capacity within
conflict. Two things can, however, be said. First,
the introduction of SCAT, and its omission from the
modelling procedure, is a further reason to view
the traffic forecast by the model with a conservative
eye. Those forecasts should be regarded as the upper
limit. Secondly, the evidence of Mr. Bliss may
weigh in favour of a policy directed at intersec-
tion improvements (road widening; adding right
hand turning lanes) rather than a major road.
If an intersection is constricting a road, and
preventing the utilisation of latent capacity within
81. DMR
Transcript 30/11/79, page 12.
-102-
other sections of the same road, it may be more
appropriate to improve that intersection (and
thereafter take advantage of the increased
capacity offered by SCAT) before contemplating
a major road. At least the option should be
examined once SCAT is in operation.
appropriate to improve that intersection (and
thereafter take advantage of the increased
capacity offered by SCAT) before contemplating
a major road. At least the option should be
examined once SCAT is in operation.
3.6 What Growth Does the Model Predict?
We must differentiate between triptable C and
triptable D. The growth predictions are different
depending upon the triptable being used (82).
triptable D. The growth predictions are different
depending upon the triptable being used (82).
The Joint Study Report is based upon triptable C.
On the subject of growth it says this (83):
On the subject of growth it says this (83):
"Overall, in the Sydney
Region, the
growth in the number of morning peak
period vehicle trips between 1976
and 1991 is expected to be over 20%.
Much of the growth, however, is expected
to occur in the outer areas.
Within the Study Area the growth in
traffic is expected to be substantially
lower. For example, considering a broad
corridor of movement across a north-
south line through the study area, the
growth in peak period travel is expected
to be about 3%. This growth is likely
to be closer to Botany Bay and
lower towards Bankstown."
(emphasis added)
growth in the number of morning peak
period vehicle trips between 1976
and 1991 is expected to be over 20%.
Much of the growth, however, is expected
to occur in the outer areas.
Within the Study Area the growth in
traffic is expected to be substantially
lower. For example, considering a broad
corridor of movement across a north-
south line through the study area, the
growth in peak period travel is expected
to be about 3%. This growth is likely
to be closer to Botany Bay and
lower towards Bankstown."
(emphasis added)
There was a minor error in triptable C which
distorted the prediction. It was corrected in
triptable D. The forecast growth between 1976
and 1991 according to triptable D ranged from 8%
(near the airport) to 32% (in the corridor leading
to the South-West). There is a useful table in the
submission from the Department of Main Roads which
contrasts the 1976 position with that expected
(according to the model) in 1991. The same ten
screenlines are used. (See Figure 15). The table
82. The
triptables, and reasons for their change
are described in Volume II, page 203.
83. Joint Study Report, page 5.
are described in Volume II, page 203.
83. Joint Study Report, page 5.
-103-
is reproduced here (84):
The growth predicted in the outer areas (and
especially in the South Western Corridor) is
substantial. Screenline 10, transects the
following roads:
especially in the South Western Corridor) is
substantial. Screenline 10, transects the
following roads:
- Brunker Road
- Hume Highway, Greenacre
- Wattle Street, Bankstown
- South Terrace, Bankstown
- Canterbury Road at Bankstown
- Henry Lawson Drive
Growth of 32% is predicted in this corridor. The
discrepancy between supply and demand expected in
1991 is evident from the very high volume/capacity
ratio (1.23). Is growth of this order realistic?
The most recent traffic figures and population
estimates suggest it is not. The growth between
1971 and 1979 is set out in the following table:
discrepancy between supply and demand expected in
1991 is evident from the very high volume/capacity
ratio (1.23). Is growth of this order realistic?
The most recent traffic figures and population
estimates suggest it is not. The growth between
1971 and 1979 is set out in the following table:
TABLE 4.
AADT_GROWTH
ACROSS SCREENLINE TEN
YEAR
|
VEHICLES
(24 hours ) |
1971
|
151,200
|
1973
|
166,960
|
1975
|
169,090
|
1977
|
171,730
|
1979
|
174,590
|
Between 1975 and 1979 the overall growth in this
corridor was only 3.25%. Were growth at that rate
to continue the traffic would be 11% greater in 1991
than 1976 (contrast 32% predicted) (85). The 32%
growth figure therefore seems highly improbable.
Corroboration for that conclusion can be found in
corridor was only 3.25%. Were growth at that rate
to continue the traffic would be 11% greater in 1991
than 1976 (contrast 32% predicted) (85). The 32%
growth figure therefore seems highly improbable.
Corroboration for that conclusion can be found in
84. Submission
DMR S.K/C 340 Transport and Economic
Analysis, page 16. The table reproduced incorporates
minor corrections to the original table.
85. See exhibit 96 DMR.
Analysis, page 16. The table reproduced incorporates
minor corrections to the original table.
85. See exhibit 96 DMR.
-104-
-105-
the revised population estimates for the South-
Western Region. These are examined below (86).
Western Region. These are examined below (86).
This conclusion has important implications for the
South-Western Freeway Option. That option is largely
justified by the very high growth (and the consequent
capacity shortfall) in the South-Western Corridor.
South-Western Freeway Option. That option is largely
justified by the very high growth (and the consequent
capacity shortfall) in the South-Western Corridor.
3.7 Growth in Truck Traffic
The growth in truck traffic is of greater concern
to this Inquiry than the growth in commuter traffic.
The accessibility demands made by trucks are of
especial importance (87).
to this Inquiry than the growth in commuter traffic.
The accessibility demands made by trucks are of
especial importance (87).
What prediction does the model make? It emerges
from the following passage, extracted from the
submission from the Department of Main Roads (88):
from the following passage, extracted from the
submission from the Department of Main Roads (88):
"Truck traffic numbers are not
expected
to increase greatly but their nuisance
value, safety impact and pavement
damage on unsuitable streets is
disproportionately high."
to increase greatly but their nuisance
value, safety impact and pavement
damage on unsuitable streets is
disproportionately high."
One of the largest species of trucks is a semi-
trailer carrying a maritime container. This Inquiry
has recommended a scheme regulating the passage of
maritime containers. Rail is to be used when they
are destined for the Western Suburbs or come from
the Western Suburbs. If that scheme finds favour
with the Government, the number of large trucks
using the Study Area will materially diminish. In
that event, the demands made by truck traffic upon
the road system in 1991 may not be greatly
different from those made today (89).
trailer carrying a maritime container. This Inquiry
has recommended a scheme regulating the passage of
maritime containers. Rail is to be used when they
are destined for the Western Suburbs or come from
the Western Suburbs. If that scheme finds favour
with the Government, the number of large trucks
using the Study Area will materially diminish. In
that event, the demands made by truck traffic upon
the road system in 1991 may not be greatly
different from those made today (89).
-106-
4. GENERATORS OF FUTURE TRAFFIC
4.1 Kingsford Smith Airport, Mascot
4.1.1 The Future of Kingsford Smith Airport
Planners must live with uncertainty. The Simblist
Report said this (90):
"Planning involves the
determination
of known factors and (a) reasonable
appreciation of unknown factors.
At no time would planners have all
desirable information as a matter
of certainty."
of known factors and (a) reasonable
appreciation of unknown factors.
At no time would planners have all
desirable information as a matter
of certainty."
One of the greatest uncertainties bedevilling this
Inquiry is the future of Kingsford Smith Airport.
Indeed, Canterbury Council makes the following
recommendation (91):
Inquiry is the future of Kingsford Smith Airport.
Indeed, Canterbury Council makes the following
recommendation (91):
"6. Canterbury Council
recommends
that any decision on the Kyeemagh/
Chullora Route be deferred until
the Second Sydney Airport question
(MANS) is resolved."
that any decision on the Kyeemagh/
Chullora Route be deferred until
the Second Sydney Airport question
(MANS) is resolved."
In October, 1976 a committee was formed, the MANS
Committee. MANS is a joint Commonwealth-State
Committee. It was asked to 'recommend to both
governments a programme to cater for Sydney’s
airport needs for the next 25 years'.
Committee. MANS is a joint Commonwealth-State
Committee. It was asked to 'recommend to both
governments a programme to cater for Sydney’s
airport needs for the next 25 years'.
The options fell into three broad classes (92):
- make the best of the airport
facilities already available
- develop an additional runway
at Kingsford Smith Airport
- develop a second major airport.
90. Report
of the Botany Bay Port and Environment
Inquiry (Simblist Inquiry), page 16.
91. Canterbury Municipal Council Submission S.K/C
341, page 1.
92. MANS Study ‘Abstract Report: Commonwealth
Members’ Recommendations' December 1979, page 13-15.
Inquiry (Simblist Inquiry), page 16.
91. Canterbury Municipal Council Submission S.K/C
341, page 1.
92. MANS Study ‘Abstract Report: Commonwealth
Members’ Recommendations' December 1979, page 13-15.
-107-
In December, 1979 the Commonwealth members of the
joint study published their recommendations. They
preferred to redevelop Kingsford Smith Airport.
They favoured what was termed the ‘close spaced
runway option’. The option is depicted in the
following diagram (although the area of reclamation
has since been altered). (93)
joint study published their recommendations. They
preferred to redevelop Kingsford Smith Airport.
They favoured what was termed the ‘close spaced
runway option’. The option is depicted in the
following diagram (although the area of reclamation
has since been altered). (93)
FIGURE 17.
CLOSE
SPACED RUNWAY OPTION KINGSFORD SMITH AIRPORT
On the subject of a second major airport the
Commonwealth members had this to say (94):
Commonwealth members had this to say (94):
"The Commonwealth members
consider
that development of a second major
airport cannot be preferred to
developing a (close spaced parallel)
runway at the existing Sydney Airport.
However, in the event that a second
that development of a second major
airport cannot be preferred to
developing a (close spaced parallel)
runway at the existing Sydney Airport.
However, in the event that a second
93. Abstract
Report, ibid., page 28.
94. Abstract Report, ibid., page 23.
94. Abstract Report, ibid., page 23.
-108-
Sydney Airport is eventually
required, the Commonwealth Members
believe that there is a clear
preference for a development at
Badgery’s Creek site(SW4) over
the other short-listed site at
Scheyville (Nl)."
required, the Commonwealth Members
believe that there is a clear
preference for a development at
Badgery’s Creek site(SW4) over
the other short-listed site at
Scheyville (Nl)."
The New South Wales Government rejected these
recommendations. The reaction of the then Minister
for Planning and Environment, Mr. Paul Landa,
emerges from the following paragraph (which forms
part of the press release made by the Commonwealth
Minister, The Honourable R.J. Hunt M.P.):
recommendations. The reaction of the then Minister
for Planning and Environment, Mr. Paul Landa,
emerges from the following paragraph (which forms
part of the press release made by the Commonwealth
Minister, The Honourable R.J. Hunt M.P.):
"Mr. Hunt said that he had
discussed
the Report with Mr, Landa this
morning but Mr. Landa had indicated
that he could not, in any circumstances,
accept the recommendations related to
the further development of Kingsford
Smith Airport."
the Report with Mr, Landa this
morning but Mr. Landa had indicated
that he could not, in any circumstances,
accept the recommendations related to
the further development of Kingsford
Smith Airport."
And that is where the matter rests. There is an
impasse between the Commonwealth and State Members.
impasse between the Commonwealth and State Members.
The impasse creates a dilemma for this Inquiry.
If it is resolved by a decision to build a second
airport, the major options may not be happily placed
to serve the traffic needs of that airport. URTAC
put the matter in this way (95):
If it is resolved by a decision to build a second
airport, the major options may not be happily placed
to serve the traffic needs of that airport. URTAC
put the matter in this way (95):
"However, if a new airport
were
constructed at any of the potential
zones identified in the Major Airport
Needs of Sydney (MANS) Study, the
situation would he dramatically
different. If a site in the South
Western zone were chosen, the South
Western Option clearly would provide
a direct route linking the areas of
major airport traffic generation to
the new site. The Cooks River Option
would, on the other hand, be much less
direct though still of value. If a
site in the northern or north-western
zone was selected, neither option would
be of particular relevance although the
Cooks River Option would have some
advantage."
constructed at any of the potential
zones identified in the Major Airport
Needs of Sydney (MANS) Study, the
situation would he dramatically
different. If a site in the South
Western zone were chosen, the South
Western Option clearly would provide
a direct route linking the areas of
major airport traffic generation to
the new site. The Cooks River Option
would, on the other hand, be much less
direct though still of value. If a
site in the northern or north-western
zone was selected, neither option would
be of particular relevance although the
Cooks River Option would have some
advantage."
95. URTAC
Submission S.K/C 1019, page 26.
-109-
Whatever view is taken about a second airport, two
things remain clear. First, a second airport is
unlikely to be constructed before 1995 so that
Kingsford Smith Airport is likely to shoulder the
major burden until that date at least. Secondly,
even with a second airport, Kingsford Smith Airport
would clearly continue to have an important role.
We will examine the matter on the basis of the
Commonwealth Members’ recommendations. That is
the scenario most favourable to the options being
considered by this Inquiry. We will analyse the
extent to which the airport contributes to the need
for a road. If the contribution is substantial, and
the justification for the road heavily reliant upon
the future development of the airport, we will then
have to grapple with the uncertainty surrounding
that question. If, on the other hand, the contribu-
tion made by airport traffic is insignificant or
insubstantial, the uncertainty may be less important.
Commonwealth Members’ recommendations. That is
the scenario most favourable to the options being
considered by this Inquiry. We will analyse the
extent to which the airport contributes to the need
for a road. If the contribution is substantial, and
the justification for the road heavily reliant upon
the future development of the airport, we will then
have to grapple with the uncertainty surrounding
that question. If, on the other hand, the contribu-
tion made by airport traffic is insignificant or
insubstantial, the uncertainty may be less important.
4.1.2 The Issues to be Considered
The contribution of the airport to a question of need
raises the following issues:
raises the following issues:
- First, what level of traffic
is predicted?
- Secondly, what is the composition
of traffic (whether cars or trucks)?
- Thirdly, where is that airport
traffic coming from and going to?
- Fourthly, at what time of day
will the traffic be using the
road network?
- Fifthly, can the traffic be
otherwise accommodated. Specifi-
cally is it possible to strengthen
public transport ties with the
airport rather than construct a
major road?
-110-
4.1.3 The Future Level of Traffic
A model was developed (i.e., a mathematical formula)
to predict future levels of aircraft traffic. The
model differentiated between different segments of
the market including:
to predict future levels of aircraft traffic. The
model differentiated between different segments of
the market including:
- international traffic
- interstate traffic
- intrastate traffic
- commuter passenger traffic
- ‘other aviation'
The uncertainty of future aviation forecasts can
be illustrated quite simply. We have already
remarked upon the uncertainty of estimates of
vehicular traffic (the transport model) (96).
Yet the transport modellers' task is much more
simple, complex though it may be. Their task is
to reproduce something which is essentially regular,
namely the journey to work each morning between
7 a.m. and 9 a.m. They shy away from predicting
the off-peak travel (and especially weekend travel)
because it is affected by so many random factors.
The weather, the time of the year, the whim of the
person, will all influence the decision to make a
journey or not make a journey; to go here, rather
than there.
be illustrated quite simply. We have already
remarked upon the uncertainty of estimates of
vehicular traffic (the transport model) (96).
Yet the transport modellers' task is much more
simple, complex though it may be. Their task is
to reproduce something which is essentially regular,
namely the journey to work each morning between
7 a.m. and 9 a.m. They shy away from predicting
the off-peak travel (and especially weekend travel)
because it is affected by so many random factors.
The weather, the time of the year, the whim of the
person, will all influence the decision to make a
journey or not make a journey; to go here, rather
than there.
Many journeys by aircraft are essentially optional.
They are the equivalent of the off peak journeys by
car. They may take place if there happens to be
the right combination of circumstances. They will
not take place in other circumstances. Extrapola_
tion from past trends may camouflage the factors
which influence travel habits. The forecasts
inevitably must be treated with great circumspection.
They are the equivalent of the off peak journeys by
car. They may take place if there happens to be
the right combination of circumstances. They will
not take place in other circumstances. Extrapola_
tion from past trends may camouflage the factors
which influence travel habits. The forecasts
inevitably must be treated with great circumspection.
96. See
page 92.
-111-
Many journeys are for recreation. They are
dependent upon the level of fares and the relation-
ship between fares and real income. The Bureau of
Transport Economics says this (97):
dependent upon the level of fares and the relation-
ship between fares and real income. The Bureau of
Transport Economics says this (97):
"Sensitivity tests had shown
that
forecasts were particularly sensitive
to small changes in the growth rates
of both incomes and fares. The high
forecasts were generated on the basis
of high values for future income and
population growth..In the case of the
low forecasts, low values for future
incomes and populations only were used.”
forecasts were particularly sensitive
to small changes in the growth rates
of both incomes and fares. The high
forecasts were generated on the basis
of high values for future income and
population growth..In the case of the
low forecasts, low values for future
incomes and populations only were used.”
The level of fares is dependent, amongst other things,
upon the supply and price of fuel. We have already
commented upon the uncertainty which shrouds these issues.
upon the supply and price of fuel. We have already
commented upon the uncertainty which shrouds these issues.
With this caveat in mind, what do the forecasts say?
The MANS Study produced high, medium and low forecasts.
Its concluding remarks include the following (98):
The MANS Study produced high, medium and low forecasts.
Its concluding remarks include the following (98):
"The results indicate that
with
unconstrained growth, passenger
movements at Sydney Airport by
the Year 2000 could be almost
five times the 1976 level in some
circumstances. Over the same
period, aircraft movements could
more than double (again in the
appropriate circumstances). The
discrepancy between these figures
is due to increasing aircraft size,
changes in passenger load factors
and variations in the balance between
the various markets involved. The
BTE’s medium forecasts, however,
suggest that passenger movements at
Sydney Airport in the Year 2000
would be around 28 million, an
increase of some 275% over the
1976 level. Corresponding aircraft
movement figures would be 267,000
(an increase of around 75%)."
unconstrained growth, passenger
movements at Sydney Airport by
the Year 2000 could be almost
five times the 1976 level in some
circumstances. Over the same
period, aircraft movements could
more than double (again in the
appropriate circumstances). The
discrepancy between these figures
is due to increasing aircraft size,
changes in passenger load factors
and variations in the balance between
the various markets involved. The
BTE’s medium forecasts, however,
suggest that passenger movements at
Sydney Airport in the Year 2000
would be around 28 million, an
increase of some 275% over the
1976 level. Corresponding aircraft
movement figures would be 267,000
(an increase of around 75%)."
The number of aircraft movements does not tell us
how many vehicles are wending their way to the
how many vehicles are wending their way to the
97. Sydney
Region Aviation Forecasts Occasional paper
No. 25 Bureau of Transport Economics, page 38.
98. Aviation Forecasts ibid., page 56.
No. 25 Bureau of Transport Economics, page 38.
98. Aviation Forecasts ibid., page 56.
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airport, or making their way from it. The number
of vehicle trips will depend upon:
- the number of airport workers
- the number of aircraft passengers
- the number of service vehicles
- the airfreight industry associated
with the airport
- the number of persons greeting
passengers (affectionately known
as 'meeters/greeters’)
The State Transport Study Group considered the
matter in the Central Industrial Area Study (June,
1977). It thought there would be approximately
70,000 trips per day to and from Kingsford Smith
Airport in 1985. This number would rise to 83,000
by 1990.
matter in the Central Industrial Area Study (June,
1977). It thought there would be approximately
70,000 trips per day to and from Kingsford Smith
Airport in 1985. This number would rise to 83,000
by 1990.
The Total Environment Centre thought the estimate
too high. It said this in its submission (99):
too high. It said this in its submission (99):
"We submit this estimate of
future
airport related traffic remains too
high. The figure assumes consistent
growth in air passenger demand. This
is extremely doubtful for a number of
reasons:
airport related traffic remains too
high. The figure assumes consistent
growth in air passenger demand. This
is extremely doubtful for a number of
reasons:
1.
Higher prices for scarcer aviation
fuel will mean higher fares. These
will lower demand.
fuel will mean higher fares. These
will lower demand.
2.
The greater use by the business
community of telecommunications
such as video phones, telephone
hook-ups will reduce the need for
face-to-face contact in business.
community of telecommunications
such as video phones, telephone
hook-ups will reduce the need for
face-to-face contact in business.
3.
A continuation of economic recession
and higher tax brackets will mean
less disposable income for Australian
residents. "
and higher tax brackets will mean
less disposable income for Australian
residents. "
The Study Group did not have access to the MANS
Aviation Forecasts (100). They were not completed
Aviation Forecasts (100). They were not completed
99. Submission S.K/C 1287 Total Environment Centre
and Friends of the Earth, pages 26-27.
100. Central Industrial Area Study, ibid., page 39.
and Friends of the Earth, pages 26-27.
100. Central Industrial Area Study, ibid., page 39.
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until some time after the publication of the Central
Industrial Area Study (1). It would appear, with
hindsight, that the Study Group estimate of 70,000
trips is too high. Its low estimate of 60,000
trips may be closer to the mark. Even that figure
may require further revision in view of the most
recent population figures.
Industrial Area Study (1). It would appear, with
hindsight, that the Study Group estimate of 70,000
trips is too high. Its low estimate of 60,000
trips may be closer to the mark. Even that figure
may require further revision in view of the most
recent population figures.
Assuming that 17% of the daily travel occurs in
the a.m. peak, the prediction of vehicle trips in
1985 made by the Study Group was as follows (2):
the a.m. peak, the prediction of vehicle trips in
1985 made by the Study Group was as follows (2):
- Most likely 11,900 trips
- Low estimate (which the Inquiry
prefers) 10,200 trips.”
4.1.4 The Composition of Airport Traffic
In 1978 the Planning and Environment Commission went
into the Botany Sub-Region to obtain its views on a
number of issues. Brochures were distributed.
Surveys were conducted. Public meetings were held.
The extension to the Kingsford Smith Airport was
a prominent issue. The residents felt strongly
that it should not take place. The local councils
took the same view. Significantly, aircraft traffic,
as such, was not identified as a major issue. The
reason emerges from the Central Industrial Area
Study (3):
into the Botany Sub-Region to obtain its views on a
number of issues. Brochures were distributed.
Surveys were conducted. Public meetings were held.
The extension to the Kingsford Smith Airport was
a prominent issue. The residents felt strongly
that it should not take place. The local councils
took the same view. Significantly, aircraft traffic,
as such, was not identified as a major issue. The
reason emerges from the Central Industrial Area
Study (3):
"Although (airport traffic)
has been
defined in this study as a major
issue, there has been little public
concern about the impacts of growth
in airport traffic. Perhaps this is
because cars going to the airport
cannot be distinguished from other
vehicles, white trucks (especially
container trucks) are highly noticeable.”
defined in this study as a major
issue, there has been little public
concern about the impacts of growth
in airport traffic. Perhaps this is
because cars going to the airport
cannot be distinguished from other
vehicles, white trucks (especially
container trucks) are highly noticeable.”
Most of the predicted traffic is car traffic. Its
impact upon the environment, and upon the public
impact upon the environment, and upon the public
1. MANS Information
Bulletin No. 1 published in
December, 1977.
2. Central Industrial Area Study Chapter III, page 42.
3. Central Industrial Area Study Chapter IV, page 6.
December, 1977.
2. Central Industrial Area Study Chapter III, page 42.
3. Central Industrial Area Study Chapter IV, page 6.
-114-
consciousness, is not as significant as that made
by trucks.
by trucks.
There will be a truck component. A cluster of
companies has sprung up around the airport,
servicing the airfreight industry. The Study
Group made the following comment (4):
companies has sprung up around the airport,
servicing the airfreight industry. The Study
Group made the following comment (4):
"The vehicle trip estimates
included
an allowance for the movement of
airfreight. Recent reports have
identified airfreight as being a
high growth segment" of airport
operations.. High growth rates were
assumed in this study.
an allowance for the movement of
airfreight. Recent reports have
identified airfreight as being a
high growth segment" of airport
operations.. High growth rates were
assumed in this study.
However, despite the high growth
rates assumed, the overall size of
airfreight traffic will be relatively
small (approximately 11%) compared
with other traffic going to or from
the airport, and even more so when
compared with total traffic on
nearby roads."
Qantas has recently announced that it will substan-
tially upgrade its operations at Kingsford Smith
Airport. A figure slightly higher than 11% may be
appropriate. The proportion of that 11% which may
use one of the major options, however, is not thought
by this Inquiry to be substantial.
tially upgrade its operations at Kingsford Smith
Airport. A figure slightly higher than 11% may be
appropriate. The proportion of that 11% which may
use one of the major options, however, is not thought
by this Inquiry to be substantial.
4.1.5 The Time of Day at Which Movements are Made
We have referred already to the assumption by the
Study Group that 17% of the trips would be made in
the morning peak. The MANS Study provided a table
(based upon its medium forecasts) of aircraft move-
ment on a busy day. There is a fairly even spread
throughout the day (5).
Ease of access to the airport is obviously important.
It is of greater moment when rushing to catch a plane,
than upon return from a holiday, or even from a day's
It is of greater moment when rushing to catch a plane,
than upon return from a holiday, or even from a day's
4. Central
Industrial Area Study, Chapter III, page 44.
5. MANS Study Information Bulletin No. 11, September
1978, page 16.
5. MANS Study Information Bulletin No. 11, September
1978, page 16.
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business. It is of greater importance, perhaps,
when the airport is located on the periphery of the
metropolitan area than when it is centrally located,
as it is at Kingsford Smith Airport.
4.1.6 The Direction of Travel
The Study Group furnished a valuable guide (6):
TABLE 6.
KINGSFORD
SMITH AIRPORT DAILY AND A.M. PEAK VEHICLE
TRIPS BY SECTOR 1985
TRIPS BY SECTOR 1985
SECTOR
(TRIP ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS) |
DAILY
|
AM PEAK
|
PERCENT
|
CENTRAL
|
14,000
|
2,380
|
20
|
EASTERN
|
12,600
|
2,140
|
18
|
SOUTHERN
|
11,900
|
2,020
|
17
|
SOUTH-WEST
|
6,300
|
1,070
|
9
|
WEST
|
7,700
|
1,310
|
11
|
NORTH-WEST
|
7,000
|
1,190
|
10
|
NORTH SHORE
|
10,500
|
1,790
|
15
|
TOTAL REGION
|
70,000
|
11,900
|
17
|
We have said that we regard the estimate of 70,000
trips per day as being high. If it is reduced to
60,000, the a.m. peak total reduces from 11,900 to
10,200.
On the basis of this table (Table 6) the Total
Environment Centre made the following submission (7):
Environment Centre made the following submission (7):
"Traffic destined for the
airport
which might use the Kyeemagh/Chullora
Route would originate in the Southern
West and South-West sectors of the
city. In total these sectors would
which might use the Kyeemagh/Chullora
Route would originate in the Southern
West and South-West sectors of the
city. In total these sectors would
6. Central
Industrial Area Study, Chapter III, page 42.
7. S.K/C 1287 Total Environment Centre, page 28.
7. S.K/C 1287 Total Environment Centre, page 28.
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generate approximately 26,000 trips
to or from the airport. However,
because of the large geographical
extent of these sectors, a more
reasonable estimate would be all
the trips from the South West, two-
thirds from the West and a quarter
from the Southern sector. This
generous proportioning of traffic
gives an estimate of 14,500 trips
using the proposed route per day -
of this total about 15% would travel
in the a.m. peak period, that is
approximately 2,200 vehicles, or
about 1,000 additional vehicles to
the 1975 traffic figures."
The Centre then offered the following conclusion:
"Therefore, even allowing for the
realisation of P.E.C.'s estimates
the future demand of airport related
traffic using one of the proposed
routes is of small magnitude,
particularly during peak hours."
The URTAC conclusion hardly differs from this view
It says (8):
It says (8):
"Because the major directions
of airport
traffic flows are towards the city,
northern and eastern suburbs, neither
the South-Western nor the Cooks River
Routes would have a major impact on
meeting the future land transport
needs of Kingsford Smith Airport. Both
route, however, would carry some airport
traffic but that traffic will represent
only a minor proportion of total traffic
flows. They should, therefore, be seen
principally as 'regional' routes, with
a significant airport function, rather
than ‘airport access’ routes.”
traffic flows are towards the city,
northern and eastern suburbs, neither
the South-Western nor the Cooks River
Routes would have a major impact on
meeting the future land transport
needs of Kingsford Smith Airport. Both
route, however, would carry some airport
traffic but that traffic will represent
only a minor proportion of total traffic
flows. They should, therefore, be seen
principally as 'regional' routes, with
a significant airport function, rather
than ‘airport access’ routes.”
That is not to say that roadworks, even major roadworks,
are unnecessary in the vicinity of the airport itself.
Direct access to the airport may need to be improved.
That is a separate issue.
are unnecessary in the vicinity of the airport itself.
Direct access to the airport may need to be improved.
That is a separate issue.
The airport cannot be viewed, therefore, as a major
8. URTAC
Submission S.K/C 1019, page 25.
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factor justifying the need for any one of the options.
We do not doubt that the roads, if they were available,
would assist airport traffic. That is not the question.
The issue is whether their demands are so pressing
(either alone or in combination with other traffic
generators) as to justify one of the options.
Plainly they are not. Airport traffic is substan-
tially car traffic. The geographical orientation
of that traffic is such that most of it does not
come from the West or South-West. The numbers
predicted are not likely to substantially increase
the strain during the peak period. And in the off-
peak the system ccopes reasonably well with cars.
(either alone or in combination with other traffic
generators) as to justify one of the options.
Plainly they are not. Airport traffic is substan-
tially car traffic. The geographical orientation
of that traffic is such that most of it does not
come from the West or South-West. The numbers
predicted are not likely to substantially increase
the strain during the peak period. And in the off-
peak the system ccopes reasonably well with cars.
4.1.7 Can the Traffic be Otherwise Accommodated?
One of the options before the Inquiry is a public
transport option. It was suggested that the Botany
Goods Line should be upgraded to cope, inter-alia
with airport traffic. That is a matter which we
will separately consider when we examine each option.
transport option. It was suggested that the Botany
Goods Line should be upgraded to cope, inter-alia
with airport traffic. That is a matter which we
will separately consider when we examine each option.
4.2 Port Botany
4.2.1 The Simblist Inquiry, November, 1976
The Botany Bay Port and Environment Inquiry concluded
in November, 1976. It recommended the following
Port developments:
- the container terminals proposed
by the Australian National Line
(ANL) and Container Terminals
Australia limited (CTAL) .
- A bulk liquid berth and storage
area.
- A dry bulk berth and storage area.
It recommended against the establishment of a coal
loader.
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Its major recommendations were accepted by the
Government. The Australian National Line container
terminal was opened in December, 1979. The CTAL
terminal is expected to be opened by mid-1981. A
bulk liquid berth has been established.
There is vacant Port land. It has recently (9)
been earmarked for a crude oil facility. Construc-
tion will begin in the latter half of 1981. The
transport implications of that decision are not
clear. Whether the oil can be transferred by
pipeline, or whether it will be necessary to carry
it by road tanker, is still uncertain.
been earmarked for a crude oil facility. Construc-
tion will begin in the latter half of 1981. The
transport implications of that decision are not
clear. Whether the oil can be transferred by
pipeline, or whether it will be necessary to carry
it by road tanker, is still uncertain.
If road tankers are used, that is a further
argument against any road (if a road were thought
desirable) terminating on the southern side of the
airport. The tunnel under Kingsford Smith Airport
is unsuitable for the transportation of inflammable
and dangerous liquids and chemicals.
argument against any road (if a road were thought
desirable) terminating on the southern side of the
airport. The tunnel under Kingsford Smith Airport
is unsuitable for the transportation of inflammable
and dangerous liquids and chemicals.
4.2.2 The Container Traffic
The Joint Study Report made the following comment
with container traffic in mind (10):
"The same study (referring to the
Central Industrial Area Study)
round that truck traffic generated
by the Port will form a small
proportion of total traffic during
the morning peak period) on roads
in the region, and even on roads
adjacent to the port. Whilst
being few in proportion, however,
additional truck traffic will have
a greater impact than additional
cars in areas sensitive to their
noise and size.”
Volume I of this Report is devoted to containers.
It examines the environmental impact of container
transportation by road. If we may be forgiven quoting
ourselves, we say (11):
9. The Australian Financial Review 29/12/80, page
5.
10. Joint Study Report, page 5.
11. Volume I, page 22.
10. Joint Study Report, page 5.
11. Volume I, page 22.
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"It can hardly be denied that
container trucks have an impact
upon the environment, and that the
impact is significant.”
Our conclusion is in these terms (12):
"Those who advocate the free
market case have two strings to
their bow. First they maintain
that there is no environmental
problem. The public in its response
to this Inquiry has registered its
profound disagreement. The Local
Councils, in a rare show of
unanimity, have also disagreed.
This Inquiry supports the view
taken by the public and the Local
Councils, and is firmly of the view
that there is a problem which will
become increasingly evident as port
Botany becomes fully operational.
market case have two strings to
their bow. First they maintain
that there is no environmental
problem. The public in its response
to this Inquiry has registered its
profound disagreement. The Local
Councils, in a rare show of
unanimity, have also disagreed.
This Inquiry supports the view
taken by the public and the Local
Councils, and is firmly of the view
that there is a problem which will
become increasingly evident as port
Botany becomes fully operational.
But that is not the end of the free
market case by any means. There is
the second string. It is said that
even if there is an environmental
problem, the operational, practical
and financial difficulties which
would accompany the alternatives
make them even less desirable."
market case by any means. There is
the second string. It is said that
even if there is an environmental
problem, the operational, practical
and financial difficulties which
would accompany the alternatives
make them even less desirable."
In the course of that Volume we examine a number of
alternatives. We rule out some because they seem
to create more problems than they solve we conclude
by recommending to the Government a scheme. It is
termed the ‘Western Suburbs Scheme’.
alternatives. We rule out some because they seem
to create more problems than they solve we conclude
by recommending to the Government a scheme. It is
termed the ‘Western Suburbs Scheme’.
4.2.3 The Western Suburbs Scheme Recommeended by
the Inquiry
the Inquiry
The essential features of the scheme are:
1. Sydney should be divided into
an eastern zone and a western
zone.
12. Volume I, page 94.
-120-
2. The Local Government areas on
the boundary of the Western zone
include Campbelltown, Liverpool,
Bankstown, Strathfield, Concord,
Ryde and Hornsby. Each of those
areas is included in the Western
zone.
3. Under the scheme import FCL
containers destined for the
Western zone would be carried by
rail to decentralised depots at:
- Villawood or
- Chullora
4. Export FCL containers coming from
the Western Suburbs are to be
delivered to the same decentralised
depots rather than directly by road
to the Port.
There is a distinction between FCL and LCL containers
An FCL container is one in which the contents are
consigned by (or destined for) one consignor (or
consignee). An LCL container contains the imported
(or exported) goods of a number of consignees/
consignors. The scheme embraces only FCL containers.
An FCL container is one in which the contents are
consigned by (or destined for) one consignor (or
consignee). An LCL container contains the imported
(or exported) goods of a number of consignees/
consignors. The scheme embraces only FCL containers.
4.2.4 The Effect Upon Traffic of the Inquiry’s
Proposal
Proposal
Under the Inquiry's proposal the rail share would be
approximately 41% of the Sydney throughput. This
contrasts with 26% under the Free Market Case.
approximately 41% of the Sydney throughput. This
contrasts with 26% under the Free Market Case.
The difference is vital to the environment.
Calculations were made by the Planning and Environment
Commission, and by STSG, of the number of vehicles
crossing a screenline (in the Rockdale area) under
the Free Market Case and under the Western Suburbs
Scheme. The result was as follows:
Calculations were made by the Planning and Environment
Commission, and by STSG, of the number of vehicles
crossing a screenline (in the Rockdale area) under
the Free Market Case and under the Western Suburbs
Scheme. The result was as follows:
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- The PEC estimate 512 trucks per
day in Rockdale under the Free
Market Case.
- A maximum of 89 trucks per hour
during peak periods.
- If the rail share were 41 or 42%
as suggested by the Inquiry the
number of trucks in Rockdale would
reduce to 67 per day.
The scheme, in short, would reduce the total daily
number of trucks crossing the Rockdale screenline
to a lesser number than would be experienced each
hour (in the peak) under the Free Market Case. In
the Inquiry's view that is a substantial achievement.
number of trucks crossing the Rockdale screenline
to a lesser number than would be experienced each
hour (in the peak) under the Free Market Case. In
the Inquiry's view that is a substantial achievement.
The Road Options would not be available to the
community to provide relief from truck traffic before
1991 at the earliest. It is likely to be much later
in the Inquiry's judgement. Matters of fundamental
kind (relating to the design of the road and
specifically the eastern terminus) have yet to be
resolved. The scheme, on the other hand, furnishes
a solution which can be available in the short term.
community to provide relief from truck traffic before
1991 at the earliest. It is likely to be much later
in the Inquiry's judgement. Matters of fundamental
kind (relating to the design of the road and
specifically the eastern terminus) have yet to be
resolved. The scheme, on the other hand, furnishes
a solution which can be available in the short term.
In the nature of things the Inquiry cannot know
whether its recommendation will be accepted by the
Government. The recommendation has an important
bearing, nonetheless, upon the issue of ‘need'.
The Bankstown Council dramatically underlined the
point with these words (13):
whether its recommendation will be accepted by the
Government. The recommendation has an important
bearing, nonetheless, upon the issue of ‘need'.
The Bankstown Council dramatically underlined the
point with these words (13):
"..No interest has been shown
by
successive State Governments in
constructing such a road (referring
to the Cooks River Option) until
the recent Port development in
Botany Bay. Following those develop-
ments the present State Government
is again considering the construc-
tion of a road to link the new port
facilities with industrial areas in
the West and South-West of Sydney."
successive State Governments in
constructing such a road (referring
to the Cooks River Option) until
the recent Port development in
Botany Bay. Following those develop-
ments the present State Government
is again considering the construc-
tion of a road to link the new port
facilities with industrial areas in
the West and South-West of Sydney."
13. Submission
Bankstown Municipal Council
S.K/C 1196, page 1.
S.K/C 1196, page 1.
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Whilst it may be true that container traffic would
only constitute one or two percent of the traffic
using the Kyeemagh/Chullora Road, it is the traffic
that matters. It is traffic that cannot easily be
otherwise accommodated by the network as it is, nor
deflected somewhere else. It differs markedly in
this respect from ordinary commuter traffic.
If the recommendation is accepted by the Government,
the need for the road is substantially diminished.
Whether it is diminished to the point where it is
no longer needed at all is a matter we will examine
when we look at each option.
the need for the road is substantially diminished.
Whether it is diminished to the point where it is
no longer needed at all is a matter we will examine
when we look at each option.
4.2.5 The Traffic Generated by Other Port Activities
The Maritime Services Board thought the ‘ultimate’
traffic from the bulk liquid berth would be ‘150
trucks per day and 120 cars per day'. Commissioner
Simblist thought these figures were understated.
On any view the numbers are not as substantial as
those generated by the container terminals. The
trucks will nonetheless include chemical road
tankers carrying noxious and dangerous substances.
This is a matter of special concern to the Botany
Bay Sub-Region Community Advisory Committee and its
Chairman, Professor H.L. Westerman.
traffic from the bulk liquid berth would be ‘150
trucks per day and 120 cars per day'. Commissioner
Simblist thought these figures were understated.
On any view the numbers are not as substantial as
those generated by the container terminals. The
trucks will nonetheless include chemical road
tankers carrying noxious and dangerous substances.
This is a matter of special concern to the Botany
Bay Sub-Region Community Advisory Committee and its
Chairman, Professor H.L. Westerman.
The following figures relate to the dry bulk berth
(referring to daily truck movements involving trucks
with a 15 tonne capacity or greater) (14):
(referring to daily truck movements involving trucks
with a 15 tonne capacity or greater) (14):
"1981-2...270 truck movements
1984-5...540 truck movements
Ultimate capacity 810 truck
movements.”
1984-5...540 truck movements
Ultimate capacity 810 truck
movements.”
We are not persuaded that the traffic from Port
Botany, either alone or in combination with that
from the airport, is sufficient to justify the major
Botany, either alone or in combination with that
from the airport, is sufficient to justify the major
14. Report
of the Botany Bay Port and Environment
Inquiry (The Simblist Inquiry), page 41.
Inquiry (The Simblist Inquiry), page 41.
-123-
options, provided the scheme promoted by the Inquiry
for the movement of containers is accepted. If the
scheme is rejected by the Government, the case for
building one of the major options is strengthened.
for the movement of containers is accepted. If the
scheme is rejected by the Government, the case for
building one of the major options is strengthened.
4.3 The Central Industrial Area
4.3.1 The Issues to be considered
The Central Industrial Area has many advantages.
It is close to the commercial heart of Sydney, the
Central Business District. It is nicely placed,
geographically, to the port facilities. Alexandria
is equidistant from Port Jackson and Port Botany.
It has ready access to the airport facilities at
Mascot. There are large areas zoned industrial,
although most land is in use.
We are concerned with the traffic generating capacity
of the Central Industrial Area. Our concern, moreover
extends beyond mere numbers. We must also concern
ourselves with the land use implications for the
Central Industrial Area of constructing one or
other of the options. Would the Cooks River Route
intensify the attraction of the Central Industrial
Area? Would it inhibit companies moving to the
south-west and the western Regions of Sydney (where
jobs are in short supply) and therefore prejudice a
policy of regional self-containment?
of the Central Industrial Area. Our concern, moreover
extends beyond mere numbers. We must also concern
ourselves with the land use implications for the
Central Industrial Area of constructing one or
other of the options. Would the Cooks River Route
intensify the attraction of the Central Industrial
Area? Would it inhibit companies moving to the
south-west and the western Regions of Sydney (where
jobs are in short supply) and therefore prejudice a
policy of regional self-containment?
We will touch upon these matters in this chapter.
Our judgement will emerge in the evaluation.
Our judgement will emerge in the evaluation.
We will now consider:
- The population forecasts for
the Central Industrial Area
- The decline in manufacturing
employment and its implications
- The structural changes in the
Central Industrial Area
-124-
- The traffic consequences of
these changes
- The geographical orientation
of traffic and whether the
Options would conveniently
serve that traffic.
4.3.2 Population Estimates for the Central Industrial
Area
Area
The demographic picture is one of stability or even
slight decline. The following table extracts the
relevant figures (15):
slight decline. The following table extracts the
relevant figures (15):
TABLE 7.
POPULATION
ESTIMATES CENTRAL INDUSTRIAL AREA
Local Government
Area 1976 1981 1991 2001
Area 1976 1981 1991 2001
Marrickville 90,750 88,000 88,000 89,000
South Sydney 34,250 33,000 33,000 34,000
Botany 36,500 35,500 35,000 36,000
South Sydney 34,250 33,000 33,000 34,000
Botany 36,500 35,500 35,000 36,000
4.3.3 The Decline in Manufacturing Employment
There was a time when manufacturing employment
dominated the Central Industrial Area. It no longer
does so. The change is described in the following
passage (16):
"Surveys by Plant Location
International
in Sydney suggest that 40 to 60% of
occupants in industrial zones (in the
inner area) are engaged in non-manufac-
turing pursuits. Typical occupants
(apart from manufacturers) include
wholesalers, ware-houses, showrooms,
transport depots, builders' yards,
retailers, commercial establishments,
service trades and automotive sales
and repair premises."
in Sydney suggest that 40 to 60% of
occupants in industrial zones (in the
inner area) are engaged in non-manufac-
turing pursuits. Typical occupants
(apart from manufacturers) include
wholesalers, ware-houses, showrooms,
transport depots, builders' yards,
retailers, commercial establishments,
service trades and automotive sales
and repair premises."
15. Sydney
Region Population Estimates for Local
Government Areas 1976-2001, Discussion Paper,
PEC (September, 1979), page 40-41.
16. Sydney's Inner Areas PEC (January 1980), page 57.
Government Areas 1976-2001, Discussion Paper,
PEC (September, 1979), page 40-41.
16. Sydney's Inner Areas PEC (January 1980), page 57.
-125-
The manufacturing strength of the Central Industrial
Area has been eroded, first, by the difficulties
experienced by the manufacturing sector generally
and, secondly, by the attraction offered by more
spacious industrial estates in the Western and
South-Western zones.
The economic difficulties experienced by manufactu-
ring are described by the Planning and Environment
Commission in the following words (17):
ring are described by the Planning and Environment
Commission in the following words (17):
"Over the decade to 1974,
factory
employment in the inner area declined
by about 2% per annum. The main
factors behind this appear to be
gradual declines in clothing, textiles
and footwear and the impact of re-
development, especially in areas
close to the C.B.D. Imports have
significantly affected the competi-
tive base of small, high cost firms,
particularly in labour intensive
industries."
employment in the inner area declined
by about 2% per annum. The main
factors behind this appear to be
gradual declines in clothing, textiles
and footwear and the impact of re-
development, especially in areas
close to the C.B.D. Imports have
significantly affected the competi-
tive base of small, high cost firms,
particularly in labour intensive
industries."
This was qualified in the following paragraph (17):
"As a consequence of the
recession,
manufacturing employment between
1974 and 1976 (the latest date for
which detailed figures are available)
declined by 18% in the inner area as
compared with 13% in the Sydney Region
and 12% for New South Wales.. Between
1976 and June, 1978 New South Wales
manufacturing employment declined by
a further 6%. It is not possible to
estimate the likely decline in manu-
facturing employment for the inner
area for this recent period, but a
slightly greater decline could be
anticipated."
manufacturing employment between
1974 and 1976 (the latest date for
which detailed figures are available)
declined by 18% in the inner area as
compared with 13% in the Sydney Region
and 12% for New South Wales.. Between
1976 and June, 1978 New South Wales
manufacturing employment declined by
a further 6%. It is not possible to
estimate the likely decline in manu-
facturing employment for the inner
area for this recent period, but a
slightly greater decline could be
anticipated."
When these barren statistics are converted into
jobs, the extent of the decline is apparent.
Between 1969 and 1977, 29,103 manufacturing jobs
jobs, the extent of the decline is apparent.
Between 1969 and 1977, 29,103 manufacturing jobs
17. Sydney’s
Inner Areas, PEC, pages 57 and 60.
-126-
were lost to South Sydney, Botany and Marrickville.
This represented a 31% decline (18).
The resident labour force declined at the same time.
Between 1971 and 1976 the decline was as follows (18):
Between 1971 and 1976 the decline was as follows (18):
- a decline of 6.3% in Botany
- a decline of 12.3% in Marrickville
- a decline of 17.1% in South Sydney
The total labour force resident in those three
municipalities fell from 87,770 to 77,230, a
decline of 10,500.
municipalities fell from 87,770 to 77,230, a
decline of 10,500.
The trend overall is described by the Study Group
in the following paragraph (19):
"The inner areas of Sydney are
expected to show little growth in
non-manufacturing employment, and
an overall decline in manufacturing
employment.”
(emphasis added)
expected to show little growth in
non-manufacturing employment, and
an overall decline in manufacturing
employment.”
(emphasis added)
4.3.4 Structural Changes in the Central Industrial
Area
Area
We have remarked already upon the replacement of
manufacturing with non-manufacturing industries.
C.D. Roman (an economist with the Planning and
Environment Commission) describes the changes in
these terms (20):
"Within the inner industrial
areas,
and those areas closest to the Port
and Airport, warehousing, distribution
and specialist transport services (e.g.,
airfreiqht forwarding services) have
intensified their activities. Much of
this is in direct response to the Port
Botany development, due to its intended
role as Sydney's premier container Port.”
and those areas closest to the Port
and Airport, warehousing, distribution
and specialist transport services (e.g.,
airfreiqht forwarding services) have
intensified their activities. Much of
this is in direct response to the Port
Botany development, due to its intended
role as Sydney's premier container Port.”
18. PEC
Submission S.K/C 947 Appendix 2, page 5.
19. UTSG (now STSG) – 1978 URTAC Review – Land Use -
Employment Distribution Option, page 2.
20. An Analysis of the Impact of Changing Industry
and Land Use Patterns and Technological Change
in the Botany Bay Sub-Region, C.D. Roman, page 6.
19. UTSG (now STSG) – 1978 URTAC Review – Land Use -
Employment Distribution Option, page 2.
20. An Analysis of the Impact of Changing Industry
and Land Use Patterns and Technological Change
in the Botany Bay Sub-Region, C.D. Roman, page 6.
-127-
The conversion of factories to accommodate this
change is also described (21):
change is also described (21):
"Obsolete and poorly designed
factories
are being re-equipped and refurbished
to perform more non-manufacturing roles..
the development of ‘flexible' building
designs reflecting the new technology
and building construction, to accommodate
increased container movement and storage
within the space of the building, has
increased markedly over the last few
years.”
are being re-equipped and refurbished
to perform more non-manufacturing roles..
the development of ‘flexible' building
designs reflecting the new technology
and building construction, to accommodate
increased container movement and storage
within the space of the building, has
increased markedly over the last few
years.”
Evidence was given by Mr. R.J. Orr the Director of
Forward Town Planning for the South Sydney Council.
He said this (22):
Forward Town Planning for the South Sydney Council.
He said this (22):
"ORR: Over the past
twelve months..
we have had substantial applications
for additional warehousing in our
area. Over the past ten years, there
has been a considerable reduction in
the industrial size or the manufacturing
size.. of South Sydney and the trend has,
since the Port has commenced to be
developed, and since the SATS Report
recommending the expansion of the
Cooks River Goods yard, been more to
warehousing in the South Sydney area."
we have had substantial applications
for additional warehousing in our
area. Over the past ten years, there
has been a considerable reduction in
the industrial size or the manufacturing
size.. of South Sydney and the trend has,
since the Port has commenced to be
developed, and since the SATS Report
recommending the expansion of the
Cooks River Goods yard, been more to
warehousing in the South Sydney area."
What is the effect of this restructure? C.D. Roman
said this (23):
said this (23):
"Changing industry patterns
away from
manufacturing to more service and
transport oriented activities. .will
permanently reduce the total stock
of employment opportunities available
in the Sub-Region, especially in the
inner industrial areas, irrespective
of whether the economy's prospects
improve significantly or not.”
manufacturing to more service and
transport oriented activities. .will
permanently reduce the total stock
of employment opportunities available
in the Sub-Region, especially in the
inner industrial areas, irrespective
of whether the economy's prospects
improve significantly or not.”
21. An
Analysis of the Impact of Changing Industry
and Land Use Patterns and Technological Change
in the Botany Bay Sub-Region, C.D. Roman, page 6.
22. Transcript South Sydney Council 17/10/79, page 132.
23. C.D. Roman, ibid.
and Land Use Patterns and Technological Change
in the Botany Bay Sub-Region, C.D. Roman, page 6.
22. Transcript South Sydney Council 17/10/79, page 132.
23. C.D. Roman, ibid.
-128-
The point is best illustrated by a table derived from
the important work by N.G. Butlin (editor) ‘The Impact
of Port Botany’ (24):
TABLE 8.
WORKER
DENSITY ESTIMATES FOR VARIOUS INDUSTRIES
Industry Jobs Per Hectare
Manufacturing 38
Warehousing/Storage 13
Transport (Freight) Terminals 25
Oil Refineries 12
Service Industry 25
Warehousing/Storage 13
Transport (Freight) Terminals 25
Oil Refineries 12
Service Industry 25
The Port and Airport have obviously played their
part in promoting the trend towards the establish-
ment of freight depots and warehouses. The Planning
and Environment Commission use these dramatic words
to describe the magnetic effect of these facilities (25):
"The establishment of Port
Botany has
strengthened the role of the Central
Industrial Area as the industrial
gateway to New South Wales. The area
bounded by Port Jackson, the city
centre, Kingsford Smith Airport and
Port Botany is likely to continue to
develop as a centre for the distribu-
tion and storage of goods entering
and leaving the State."
strengthened the role of the Central
Industrial Area as the industrial
gateway to New South Wales. The area
bounded by Port Jackson, the city
centre, Kingsford Smith Airport and
Port Botany is likely to continue to
develop as a centre for the distribu-
tion and storage of goods entering
and leaving the State."
The Simblist Inquiry was conscious of the attraction
to industry which the Port would offer. It said (26):
to industry which the Port would offer. It said (26):
"The traffic impact from the
proposed
Port cannot be looked at in isolation.
It must be seen as compounding factor
with other traffic generators.
Port cannot be looked at in isolation.
It must be seen as compounding factor
with other traffic generators.
24. The
table is derived from page 31 of The Impact
of Port Botany and is referred to in Appendix 2
of the PEC Submission S.K/C 947, page 1.
25. Submission Planning and Environment Commission
S.K/C 947 Attachment A, page 11.
26. Report of the Botany Bay Port and Environment
Inquiry (The Simblist Inquiry), page 43.
of Port Botany and is referred to in Appendix 2
of the PEC Submission S.K/C 947, page 1.
25. Submission Planning and Environment Commission
S.K/C 947 Attachment A, page 11.
26. Report of the Botany Bay Port and Environment
Inquiry (The Simblist Inquiry), page 43.
-129-
There will be a further increase in
traffic volumes within the area already
defined by the South Sydney, Marrickville,
and Botany Municipalities, and probably
extending beyond those areas, due to
the attraction of Port-oriented uses.
These uses include import and export
industries, transport depots for the
consolidation and unpacking of containers
and services and amenities for the port
and its users.
traffic volumes within the area already
defined by the South Sydney, Marrickville,
and Botany Municipalities, and probably
extending beyond those areas, due to
the attraction of Port-oriented uses.
These uses include import and export
industries, transport depots for the
consolidation and unpacking of containers
and services and amenities for the port
and its users.
This type of re-orientation has
already
commenced.”
commenced.”
The study Group in the Central Industrial Area Study
quibbled with these words. It did not dispute the
trend. Rather, it sought to put the matter in
perspective. It said (27):
"However, there is very little vacant
land in the Botany Municipality and
the main tracts of vacant land are
held by large industrial concerns for
their own purposes. Thus any Port-
oriented activities which are moving or
may move into the Botany Municipality
close to the port will have to replace
existing industrial activities, rather
than add to existing industrial development."(emphasis in the original)
The stock of vacant industrially zoned land in the
Central Industrial Area is low. The following
table is derived from a publication by the Planning
and Environment Commission (28) (Table 9):
Central Industrial Area is low. The following
table is derived from a publication by the Planning
and Environment Commission (28) (Table 9):
The Planning and Environment Commission, commenting
upon this table, said this (29):
upon this table, said this (29):
"(The table) shows that the
only
inner LGA with substantial land
remaining for industrial development
is in Botany. In 1974 Botany had
214 hectares undeveloped, 60% of
the total inner undeveloped land.
Of this, however, only 65 hectares
were vacant free-standing (i.e.,
not attached to existing premises)."
inner LGA with substantial land
remaining for industrial development
is in Botany. In 1974 Botany had
214 hectares undeveloped, 60% of
the total inner undeveloped land.
Of this, however, only 65 hectares
were vacant free-standing (i.e.,
not attached to existing premises)."
27. Central
Industrial Area Study, Chapter III, page 55.
28. Sydney’s Inner Area PEC January 1980, page 15.
29. ibid., page 14.
28. Sydney’s Inner Area PEC January 1980, page 15.
29. ibid., page 14.
-130-
TABLE 9.
INDUSTRIALLY
USED AND ZONED LAND (1974)
Industrially
|
Used as a %
of zoned |
||
Zoned (ha)
|
Used (ha)
|
||
ASHFIELD
|
24.2
|
17.2
|
71.1%
|
BOTANY
|
473.3
|
259.3*
|
54.8%
|
LEICHHARDT
|
143.2
|
139.2
|
97.2%
|
MARRICKVILLE
|
207.1
|
174.1
|
84.1%
|
SOUTH SYDNEY
|
558.2
|
498.2
|
89.2%
|
CITY OF
SYDNEY
|
252.8
|
200.8
|
79.4%
|
___________
|
__________
|
_________
|
|
INNER AREAS
|
1,658.8
|
1,288.8
|
77.7%
|
* The low rate of industrial land-use in Botany
reflects large reserve land holdings held by
existing companies.
reflects large reserve land holdings held by
existing companies.
We must now turn to the traffic implications of
these changes.
these changes.
4.3.5 The Traffic Implications of Change
After a painstaking examination of the Central
Industrial Area, the Study Group had this to say (30):
"Overall, stability has been
reached
in the development of the area. The
transport problems of the area, both
in the recent past and in the future,
have been and will be subject to much
more subtle changes than in the past,
such as changes in car ownership,
changes in industrial structure and the
growth of specific activities like the
airport and petro-chemical industries."
in the development of the area. The
transport problems of the area, both
in the recent past and in the future,
have been and will be subject to much
more subtle changes than in the past,
such as changes in car ownership,
changes in industrial structure and the
growth of specific activities like the
airport and petro-chemical industries."
Elsewhere in the same Report it said (31):
"In a metropolitan area like
Sydney,
which has grown so rapidly in the
last 30 years, it may be difficult
for the casual observer to grasp the
fact that development and traffic
generation in an area must eventually
level out at some equilibrium level
which has grown so rapidly in the
last 30 years, it may be difficult
for the casual observer to grasp the
fact that development and traffic
generation in an area must eventually
level out at some equilibrium level
30. Central
Industrial Area Study, Chapter II, page 4.
31. Chapter II, ibid., page 31.
31. Chapter II, ibid., page 31.
-131-
when that area's development potential
has been reached. This goes against
past experience of ever increasing
development and traffic, yet this is
largely the case in the Central
Industrial Area.”
(emphasis added)
The Group recognised the structural changes which
were taking place. It considered their traffic
implications. They are quantified in the following
table (32):
were taking place. It considered their traffic
implications. They are quantified in the following
table (32):
TABLE 10.
A.M. PEAK
TRIP ESTIMATES
(excluding
port and airport)
% Change
1974 to 1985 |
|||
1974
|
1985
|
||
Private Vehicles
|
|||
Central
Industrial Area
|
54,000
|
53,300
|
-1
|
Sydney
Region
|
460,700
|
522,900
|
+14
|
Commercial Heavy
|
|||
Central
Industrial Area
|
5,800
|
6,000
|
+3
|
Sydney
Region
|
36,300
|
44,400
|
+22
|
Commercial Light & Taxi
|
|||
Central
Industrial Area
|
14,800
|
14,700
|
-1
|
Sydney
Region
|
140,600
|
174,600
|
+24
|
The pace of conversion from manufacturing to freight
forwarding and transport activities may have been
underestimated. The traffic estimates, on the other
hand, were derived from population estimates which
have since been revised downwards. One may
effectively counterbalance the other. The Urban
Transport Advisory Committee (URTAC) relied upon this
table in its submission (33).
forwarding and transport activities may have been
underestimated. The traffic estimates, on the other
hand, were derived from population estimates which
have since been revised downwards. One may
effectively counterbalance the other. The Urban
Transport Advisory Committee (URTAC) relied upon this
table in its submission (33).
The Planning and Environment Commission added the
following word of caution (34):
following word of caution (34):
32. Central
Industrial Area Study - Summary of
Findings UTSG (October, 1977) Chapter III-I.
33. URTAC S.K/C 1019, page 17 (now known as TRANSAC)
34. Submission S.K/C 947 Planning and Environment
Commission Attachment A, page 17-l8.
Findings UTSG (October, 1977) Chapter III-I.
33. URTAC S.K/C 1019, page 17 (now known as TRANSAC)
34. Submission S.K/C 947 Planning and Environment
Commission Attachment A, page 17-l8.
-132-
"..In relation to traffic
generation,
the (Central Industrial Area Study)
assumed that, while the conversions
of industrial land to freight depots
and transport functions would increase
the number of heavy commercial vehicles
entering and leaving the area, this
would be partly (though not wholly)
offset by a decline in commercial
traffic to and from manufacturing
establishments. The PEC has no data
to dispute the assumptions made in
that Study. The Commission is,
however, conscious that, in the
longer term especially, the emerging
role of Botany, South Sydney and
Marrickville areas as the main
transport distribution centre of the
metropolitan region will have funda-
mental transport planning implications."
the (Central Industrial Area Study)
assumed that, while the conversions
of industrial land to freight depots
and transport functions would increase
the number of heavy commercial vehicles
entering and leaving the area, this
would be partly (though not wholly)
offset by a decline in commercial
traffic to and from manufacturing
establishments. The PEC has no data
to dispute the assumptions made in
that Study. The Commission is,
however, conscious that, in the
longer term especially, the emerging
role of Botany, South Sydney and
Marrickville areas as the main
transport distribution centre of the
metropolitan region will have funda-
mental transport planning implications."
With these words ringing in our ears, it is timely
that we confront again the land-use implications of
providing a facility. Is it a good thing that the
Central Industrial Area should be turned over to
freight depots and warehouses? A certain number of
freight depots and a certain amount of warehousing,
no doubt, is inevitable. Would the building of a
facility intensify that trend. Would it make it
almost irresistible for a company in that field
to locate somewhere in the Botany, South Sydney,
Marrickville area?
that we confront again the land-use implications of
providing a facility. Is it a good thing that the
Central Industrial Area should be turned over to
freight depots and warehouses? A certain number of
freight depots and a certain amount of warehousing,
no doubt, is inevitable. Would the building of a
facility intensify that trend. Would it make it
almost irresistible for a company in that field
to locate somewhere in the Botany, South Sydney,
Marrickville area?
The Planning and Environment Commission elsewhere
in their submission say this (35):
in their submission say this (35):
"Ideally, the most favoured
locations
for distributive activities are the
metropolitan areas of Auburn, Lidcombe,
Silverwater and Ryde. These areas are
served reasonably well by a number of
transport networks and are central to
industry and markets throughout the
metropolitan region. However, industrial
space in these areas is very tight."
for distributive activities are the
metropolitan areas of Auburn, Lidcombe,
Silverwater and Ryde. These areas are
served reasonably well by a number of
transport networks and are central to
industry and markets throughout the
metropolitan region. However, industrial
space in these areas is very tight."
35. Planning
and Environment Commission Submission
S.K/C 947 Appendix 2, page 7.
S.K/C 947 Appendix 2, page 7.
-133-
The scheme for the removal of maritime containers
by rail from Port Botany to decentralised depots at
Villawood or Chullora may furnish an opportunity to
the freight forwarding industry to decentralise its
operations to the Western Suburbs. A balance
between manufacturing and non-manufacturing industry
in the Central Industrial Area may, by this means,
be maintained. If that is thought desirable, is
the aim likely to be frustrated by the building of
a facility? With a facility available, providing
ready access to the Western Region, is one weakening
the incentive which the freight forwarding industry
may otherwise have to establish in that region? We
will return to these questions when we examine the
options.
by rail from Port Botany to decentralised depots at
Villawood or Chullora may furnish an opportunity to
the freight forwarding industry to decentralise its
operations to the Western Suburbs. A balance
between manufacturing and non-manufacturing industry
in the Central Industrial Area may, by this means,
be maintained. If that is thought desirable, is
the aim likely to be frustrated by the building of
a facility? With a facility available, providing
ready access to the Western Region, is one weakening
the incentive which the freight forwarding industry
may otherwise have to establish in that region? We
will return to these questions when we examine the
options.
Consultants to the Rockdale Council, Environmental
Impact Reports Pty. Limited, disputed the forecasts
by the Study Group. It saw traffic within the
Central Industrial Area growing by as much as
33% (between 1976-91).
Impact Reports Pty. Limited, disputed the forecasts
by the Study Group. It saw traffic within the
Central Industrial Area growing by as much as
33% (between 1976-91).
The Inquiry prefers the view of the Study Group.
It seems there will be little growth within the
Central Industrial Area. The conversion from
manufacturing to non-manufacturing could change
the traffic emphasis from cars to trucks. That
change is significant. The accessibility demands
of trucks are far greater than those made by cars (36).
It seems there will be little growth within the
Central Industrial Area. The conversion from
manufacturing to non-manufacturing could change
the traffic emphasis from cars to trucks. That
change is significant. The accessibility demands
of trucks are far greater than those made by cars (36).
The changes are not likely to be substantial. The
stock of vacant industrial land is small. Most
is earmarked for future development by the large
industrial concerns already established in Botany.
Many of the warehouses and freight depots will be
servicing the Central Business District nearby, and
industrial establishments within the Central Industrial
Area itself. And there is a further matter. It
stock of vacant industrial land is small. Most
is earmarked for future development by the large
industrial concerns already established in Botany.
Many of the warehouses and freight depots will be
servicing the Central Business District nearby, and
industrial establishments within the Central Industrial
Area itself. And there is a further matter. It
36. See Volume II, Transport Criteria, page 86.
-134-
emerges from the following comment made in the
course of a public hearing (37):
course of a public hearing (37):
"CONROY: ..Although warehousing
activity generates, probably generates
more road traffic per square foot of
floor space than, say, manufacturing
activity, the changes that are going
on in the Central Industrial Area is
a redevelopment of old manufacturing
industry establishments that were
built between the wars or immediately
after the Second World War. Under the
current planning provisions there is
no way that a site which has completely
redeveloped is going to be able to
have the same floor space per hectare
as the old manufacturing establishment
that it is replacing. So if we taker as
an example, the Sydney Gate Development
..it's probably a distribution activity
replacing manufacturing but because of
the Council Ordinances they have had to
provide a considerable amount of open
space and the whole design of the area
is of a much more modern nature than
the building it replaced. So although
we know that the traffic generation per
square foot of floor area might be
greater, I don't know whether we can say
that the traffic generation per hectare
has actually increased.”
(emphasis added)
The trend, in short, is for motor vehicles to decrease
(as jobs leave the area) and for trucks to marginally
increase.
(as jobs leave the area) and for trucks to marginally
increase.
4.3.6 The Geographical Orientation of Traffic
The Study Group addressed the issue in the Central
Industrial Area Study. With the aid of a traffic
model it recorded the percentage of vehicles in the
traffic stream (of a.m. peak travellers) making
their way to the Central Industrial Area.
The numbers are quite significant. They are:
37.
Transcript Planning and Environment Commission
22/11/79, page 30.
22/11/79, page 30.
-135-
- in the Arncliffe area 58%
- in the Rockdale area 36%
- in the Hurstville area 26%
- in the Wiley Park area 17%
- in the Chullora area 14%
- in the Bardwell Park area 29%
Certain things should be said in relation to this
traffic. First, it includes a high proportion of
cars. Secondly, if the emphasis is upon providing
accessibility for trucks (since they make the
greatest impact upon the community and the environ-
ment) the traffic during the a.m. peak, when people
are journeying to work, may not provide much insight
into truck numbers in the peak and off-peak.
traffic. First, it includes a high proportion of
cars. Secondly, if the emphasis is upon providing
accessibility for trucks (since they make the
greatest impact upon the community and the environ-
ment) the traffic during the a.m. peak, when people
are journeying to work, may not provide much insight
into truck numbers in the peak and off-peak.
Unfortunately information is scarce on this important
issue.
issue.
The issue was examined by Rimmer in ‘Urban Goods
Movement in Sydney' (38). He represented the freight
centres (and industrial centres) on a diagram. He
then characterised the corridors between each centre
according to a scale. We reproduce the diagram in
this Report (39).
Movement in Sydney' (38). He represented the freight
centres (and industrial centres) on a diagram. He
then characterised the corridors between each centre
according to a scale. We reproduce the diagram in
this Report (39).
Two variables were employed. The first was the
intensity of use. The second was the feasibility
of constructing a road within the corridor. On the
first issue (a needs rating) there were three
categories, A B C. The description of each category
was as follows:
intensity of use. The second was the feasibility
of constructing a road within the corridor. On the
first issue (a needs rating) there were three
categories, A B C. The description of each category
was as follows:
"A: Corridor requiring a
project to
cater for existing and anticipated
high commercial traffic volumes in
areas on intense industrial,
institutional and residential
development.
cater for existing and anticipated
high commercial traffic volumes in
areas on intense industrial,
institutional and residential
development.
38. Bureau
of Transport Economics Occasional paper 17.
39. Rimmer ibid., page 45. See Figure 18, next page.
39. Rimmer ibid., page 45. See Figure 18, next page.
FIGURE 18.
PRIORITY
RATINGS FOR COMMERCIAL CORRIDORS
IN SYDNEY
IN SYDNEY
-137-
B: Corridor with smaller commercial
traffic volumes in which progressive
improvements are possible in areas
of less dense urban development, to
cater for projected industrial and
institutional needs for the next
five years.
traffic volumes in which progressive
improvements are possible in areas
of less dense urban development, to
cater for projected industrial and
institutional needs for the next
five years.
C: Corridor with relatively small
commercial traffic volumes and
without major deficiencies in the
next five years but in which inade-
quacies are anticipated on the basis
of projected industrial- growth.”
commercial traffic volumes and
without major deficiencies in the
next five years but in which inade-
quacies are anticipated on the basis
of projected industrial- growth.”
The feasibility was characterised according to the
following scale (40):
following scale (40):
".. (A) Rating system to
distinguish
whether the project has a high (1)
medium (2) , or low (3) level of
feasibility.”
whether the project has a high (1)
medium (2) , or low (3) level of
feasibility.”
It will be seen from the diagram (Figure 18) that
the Cooks River Option between Sydney Airport and
Enfield is given B2 rating. The South Western
Option is given the same rating. They are
characterised, in other words, as catering for
'smaller commercial traffic volumes'.
the Cooks River Option between Sydney Airport and
Enfield is given B2 rating. The South Western
Option is given the same rating. They are
characterised, in other words, as catering for
'smaller commercial traffic volumes'.
It should also be remembered that the average trip
length for commercial traffic in Sydney is relatively
short. In many cases it would not be convenient
for a truck to divert to the facility because the
trip is short and the origin or destination remote
from the facility. A single road, in the nature of
things, cannot remove all trucks. It may remove
some, but it may in the process permit the genera-
tion of further traffic, including further truck
traffic.
length for commercial traffic in Sydney is relatively
short. In many cases it would not be convenient
for a truck to divert to the facility because the
trip is short and the origin or destination remote
from the facility. A single road, in the nature of
things, cannot remove all trucks. It may remove
some, but it may in the process permit the genera-
tion of further traffic, including further truck
traffic.
40. Rimmer,
ibid., page 44.
Sydney's Western Region covers a vast area. It
occupies 5,460 square kilometres. That is slightly
less than half the area of Sydney (12,396 square
kilometres) (41). In 1976 it housed 25% of the
Sydney population. Its share increased from 21%
in 1966.
It is an area of contrasts. There are substantial
differences in population density and employment
density within the Region. Auburn and Parramatta
have been intensively developed. They are mature
suburbs. The outer areas are growing. In some
cases they are growing very fast. They have large
areas of industrial land awaiting development.
differences in population density and employment
density within the Region. Auburn and Parramatta
have been intensively developed. They are mature
suburbs. The outer areas are growing. In some
cases they are growing very fast. They have large
areas of industrial land awaiting development.
The State Transport Study Group published a paper
on the Sydney Western Region in February 1978 (42).
It included an interesting comparison between the
population growth expected in the Western Region
and that expected in the South-West.
on the Sydney Western Region in February 1978 (42).
It included an interesting comparison between the
population growth expected in the Western Region
and that expected in the South-West.
The Group said (43):
"A comparison between the
Western
region and the South-western sector
as in (a table) shows that while the
latter has and will continue to grow
at a faster rate than the western
sector, in absolute terms, the
situation is reversed."
region and the South-western sector
as in (a table) shows that while the
latter has and will continue to grow
at a faster rate than the western
sector, in absolute terms, the
situation is reversed."
That comment has been reinforced by more recent
(lower) population estimates.
(lower) population estimates.
Population estimates for the outer areas of Sydney
are based upon a number of assumptions. Whereas
population predictions in the inner suburbs can be
made with some confidence, the same confidence cannot
be maintained when predicting growth in the outer
areas.
are based upon a number of assumptions. Whereas
population predictions in the inner suburbs can be
made with some confidence, the same confidence cannot
be maintained when predicting growth in the outer
areas.
41. UTSG
(now STSG) Sydney Western Region Data Paper,
page 1 (Paper No. 52., 1978).
42. ibid.
43. Ibid., page 10.
page 1 (Paper No. 52., 1978).
42. ibid.
43. Ibid., page 10.
-139-
The Planning and Environment Commission do not
disguise that uncertainty. They unashamedly
acknowledge the influence which policy can have
upon growth. The rate of growth, and where it
will be manifested, are dependent upon matters
which are essentially unforeseeable.
disguise that uncertainty. They unashamedly
acknowledge the influence which policy can have
upon growth. The rate of growth, and where it
will be manifested, are dependent upon matters
which are essentially unforeseeable.
The Commission does not provide only one
in outer areas. It provides a high, medium and low
estimate. It favours the medium estimate.
in outer areas. It provides a high, medium and low
estimate. It favours the medium estimate.
A number of tables appear below (44). They incor-
porate the following information:
porate the following information:
- the low estimate from Technical
Bulletin No. B (1976)
- the medium estimate for the same
local government areas (in the
Western Region) from the most
recent forecasts (February 1979)
- the low estimate from the February,
1979 forecasts.
The traffic model employed the low estimates from
1976. The traffic estimates are overstated,
therefore, to the extent of the discrepancy between
the 1976 estimates and the more recent revision
(assuming the latter to be a more reliable indica-
tion of growth in the future).
1976. The traffic estimates are overstated,
therefore, to the extent of the discrepancy between
the 1976 estimates and the more recent revision
(assuming the latter to be a more reliable indica-
tion of growth in the future).
4.5 The South-Western Region
The South-Western Corridor is characterised by
the Department of Main Roads as a 'high demand'
corridor calling for the staged development of the
South-Western Freeway.
44. See
pages 140 and 141.
-140-
-141-
-142-
The growth in traffic expected between 1976 and
1991 is 32%. Yet traffic does not appear to be
fulfilling those expectations. The traffic growth
emerges from the following table (Table 13).
1991 is 32%. Yet traffic does not appear to be
fulfilling those expectations. The traffic growth
emerges from the following table (Table 13).
TABLE 13.
TRAFFIC
GROWTH IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN CORRIDOR 1971-1979
SCREENLINE 10
|
1971
|
1973
|
1975
|
1977
|
1979
|
Brunker Road
|
16,790
|
18,140
|
18,150
|
17,620
|
19,700
|
Hume Highway
|
39,900
|
42,140
|
45,090
|
45,470
|
47,010
|
Wattle
Street
|
20,320
|
24,510
|
24,070
|
23,100
|
26,650
|
South
Terrace
|
10,320
|
10,560
|
11,750
|
13,030
|
9,190
|
Canterbury
Rd
|
43,490
|
44,190
|
39,290
|
40,320
|
38,270
|
Henry Lawson
Drive |
20,380
|
27,420
|
30,740
|
32,190
|
33,880
|
TOTAL
|
151,200
|
166,960
|
169,090
|
171,730
|
174,590
|
Growth Rates
in 1977
|
2.1
|
0.7
|
0.8
|
--
|
--
|
SOURCE: Exhibit 67 (DMR) to which the 1979 AADT's
have been added.
have been added.
The South-Western Region is clearly growing. That
is not the issue. The issue is the rate of growth.
Previous estimates overstate the rate of growth.
The publication Technical Bulletin No. 8 (1976) gives
a combined estimate for Campbelltown/Camden and Appin.
The low estimate was:
is not the issue. The issue is the rate of growth.
Previous estimates overstate the rate of growth.
The publication Technical Bulletin No. 8 (1976) gives
a combined estimate for Campbelltown/Camden and Appin.
The low estimate was:
- 191,500 by the year 1990
- 290,000 by the year 2000
Elsewhere the same bulletin states that 25,000 of
the 290,000 expected (according to the low estimate)
in these three areas will be located in Appin (45).
It is possible, therefore, to compare the low estimate
made in 1976 with the more recent estimates from the
Planning and Environment Commission. The comparison
the 290,000 expected (according to the low estimate)
in these three areas will be located in Appin (45).
It is possible, therefore, to compare the low estimate
made in 1976 with the more recent estimates from the
Planning and Environment Commission. The comparison
45. Technical
Bulletin No. 8 page 45.
-143-
emerges from the following table:
TABLE 14.
SOUTH-WESTERN REGION POPULATION PROJECTIONS YEAR 2000
Local Government Areas
|
1976 Low Estimate
|
1979 Low
Estimate |
1979 Medium
Estimate |
Campbelltown
|
265,000
|
112,000
|
151,000
|
Camden
|
21,000
|
34,000
|
|
Wollondilly
|
17,000
|
18,000
|
18,500
|
Liverpool
|
140,000
|
103,000
|
112,000
|
TOTAL
|
422,000
|
254,000
|
315,500
|
SOURCE: 1. Technical Bulletin No. 8 Low Estimates,
pages 48-49.
2. Discussion Paper (PEC) Medium and Low
Estimate Tables 6 and 8 (pages 44 and
48 respectively).
pages 48-49.
2. Discussion Paper (PEC) Medium and Low
Estimate Tables 6 and 8 (pages 44 and
48 respectively).
We will consider the implications of these lower
projections (and lower traffic growth rates) when
we examine the South-Western Option.
projections (and lower traffic growth rates) when
we examine the South-Western Option.
5. THE INQUIRY’S CONCLUSION
The following emerges from this material:
- The computer modelling technique
(the ‘four-step’ model) suggests
that traffic will grow at between
8% and 32% in the period 1976 to
1991.
- The modelling procedure does not
take account of SCAT (co-ordinated
signals). That omission may be
significant. SCAT may increase
the capacity of the road network
by as much as 10%. If it does,
traffic conditions will not be much
-144-
worse in 1991 than they are
now, except in those areas where
very high growth is predicted.
now, except in those areas where
very high growth is predicted.
- The South-West is one such area.
It is plain, however, from an
examination of traffic and popula-
tion figures that the 32% prediction
for the South-Western Region is an
overestimate. Present indications
suggest traffic growth of 11% in
the 15 year period. It may transpire
that is an underestimate. We are
convinced, nonetheless, that it is
closer to the mark than the predic-
tion of the traffic model.
- The Western Region is also growing.
The rate of growth is less than the
South-Western Region. However, the
base population is larger. In
absolute terms the growth in the
Western Region will exceed that of
the South-West. The growth predicted
now (in 1979) is lower than that
predicted in 1976 (when the traffic
model was constructed).
- The growth of truck traffic is of
greater concern to this Inquiry than
the growth of commuter traffic. The
impact of trucks upon the environment
and upon the public consciousness is
more profound. The Department of
Main Roads (and others) suggest that
"truck traffic numbers are not
expected to increase greatly" within
the Study Area.
-145-
- The corridors serviced by the
major options (The Cooks River
and the South-Western Options)
were characterised by one
authority as catering for
'smaller commercial traffic
volumes’.
- The Airport cannot be viewed as
a major factor justifying the
need for any one of the Options.
Airport traffic is mainly
car traffic. Most of it does not
come from the West or South-West.
The numbers predicted are not
likely to substantially increase
the strain during the peak period.
And in the off-peak the system
copes reasonably well with cars.
- If a second airport is constructed,
the Options (or some of them) may
not be happily placed to serve the
traffic of that airport.
- We are not persuaded that the traffic
from Port Botany, either alone or in
combination with that of the Airport,
is sufficient to justify the major
options provided the scheme promoted
by the Inquiry (termed the ‘Western
Suburbs Scheme’) for the movement of
containers is accepted by the Govern-
ment. If the scheme is rejected, the
case for building one of the major
Options is strengthened.
- The Central Industrial Area is under-
going change. The resident population
is stable or slowly declining. The
number of jobs appears to be declining.
Manufacturing industry is being
-146-
replaced by warehousing and
freight forwarding. The better
view seems to be that car traffic
will decline and truck traffic may
marginally increase.
freight forwarding. The better
view seems to be that car traffic
will decline and truck traffic may
marginally increase.
It is clear from our analysis of present and future
traffic conditions that there are certain problems
within the Study Area. We will suspend our judge-
ment upon the threshold question of 'need' until
our examination of each option. In the course of
that examination we will assess the effect of each
proposal upon the problems which have been
identified.
traffic conditions that there are certain problems
within the Study Area. We will suspend our judge-
ment upon the threshold question of 'need' until
our examination of each option. In the course of
that examination we will assess the effect of each
proposal upon the problems which have been
identified.
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